Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. The Middle East once again dominates today's headlines, with the US and Iran exchanging fresh strikes, new uncertainty surrounding commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and diplomatic efforts continuing behind the scenes to prevent the conflict from widening further.
Elsewhere, Russia and North Korea are drawing even closer through high-level talks in Moscow, Hungary could be set for an unconventional new president, and Lebanon's leader is heading to Washington for high-stakes discussions with Trump.
And in today’s conflict tracker, we focus on Ukraine as several sources have suggested that Zelensky is looking to replace the commander-in-chief Srysky due to mounting public and internal pressure.
Iran launched missiles and drones targeting US-linked military facilities and infrastructure in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan after U.S. forces struck an Iranian nuclear site, marking another significant escalation in the conflict. Bahraini and Kuwaiti authorities reported intercepting many of the incoming projectiles, although some attacks caused damage to infrastructure, including a power and water facility in Kuwait, while Jordan also activated its air defences in response. The exchange came as the United States carried out further strikes on Iranian targets.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed that two oil tankers exploded and became immobilised in the southern Strait of Hormuz after entering what it described as a mined transit route, though the circumstances surrounding the incident remain unverified. The United States denied responsibility, while US Central Command said its latest strikes were aimed at degrading Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping as fighting between the two countries entered its ninth consecutive day. The reported incident has intensified concerns over the security of the Strait of Hormuz.
Russian President Vladimir Putin met North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui at the Kremlin, where he thanked Pyongyang for its continued support of Russia's war in Ukraine and reaffirmed the countries' growing strategic partnership. Choe delivered a message from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un pledging to further strengthen bilateral ties, with the meeting fuelling speculation that Kim could make another visit to Russia in the coming months. The talks are the latest in a series of high-level exchanges between Moscow and Pyongyang as the two countries deepen military, economic and diplomatic cooperation under their mutual defence pact.
Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar has announced that he will ask former world chess champion Judit Polgár to become the country's next president following the departure of President Tamás Sulyok. Magyar described Polgár as a unifying national figure who could represent all Hungarians, with parliament expected to vote on the nomination if she accepts the role. The proposal comes amid broader political reforms following Magyar's election victory earlier this year, with the largely ceremonial presidency set to be filled under Hungary's new constitutional framework.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is set to meet Donald Trump at the White House, marking the first visit by a Lebanese head of state to Washington in nearly two decades. Aoun is expected to present proposals aimed at securing U.S. support for an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, strengthening the ceasefire framework, and advancing efforts to bring all weapons under the authority of the Lebanese state. The meeting comes amid ongoing U.S.-brokered negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, with Washington seeking to reduce border tensions and prevent a renewed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
Russia-Ukraine The musical chairs inside of Zelensky’s cabinet is once again moving, who could have thought we would be discussing both the removal of Fedorov AND Sryskyi just days apart, but here are. Oleksandr Syrskyi has run Ukraine's Armed Forces since February 2024, when the decree dismissing Valerii Zaluzhnyi was signed and Syrskyi was named in his place. He made his name on the ground, and his critics have long placed him in an older, Soviet school of command that leans on attrition, moves slowly on reform, and holds ground at heavy cost.
The current crisis began as a win for that old guard. On 14 July, Zelenskyy reshuffled his cabinet and dropped Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, the young minister credited with boosting Ukraine's drone warfare during a six-month tenure. Fedorov had clashed with Syrskyi for months. When he went, the traditionalists looked like they had won. If you would like to read more of this check out our previous deep dive last week which goes into depth on Fedorov.
It backfired quickly. At his exit briefing on 16 July, Fedorov accused Syrskyi of working out how to split the country rather than how to beat Russia. Protests spread across more than a dozen cities, and demonstrators set a 24 July deadline to reinstate Fedorov and remove Syrskyi, or begin open-ended nightly rallies. The Financial Times reports he is prepared to dismiss Syrskyi if he can find a commander able to take over cleanly while holding the roughly 1,200km front. He spent the weekend with his generals.
I would say there are three leading names for the top job. Joint Forces commander Mykhailo Drapatyi, deputy General Staff chief Volodymyr Horbatiuk, and Air Assault Forces commander Oleh Apostol all met Zelenskyy for a front review, though Apostol has publicly urged the military to stay out of politics.

Then there is Skala. The 425th Assault Regiment is Ukraine's largest, reports directly to the top command, and is informally known as Syrskyi's regiment. Its commander was suspended in late June over a probe into torture and dozens of noncombat recruit deaths. This week its men were filmed in Kostyantynivka holding portraits of Syrskyi and Zelenskyy, then reappeared in Russian footage as prisoners, which the regiment confirmed. For Syrskyi, the timing could hardly be worse as the footage has been widely used as an example of the negative impact Sryskyi has had on the armed forces of Ukraine. Sources Available upon request


TODAY IN HISTORY (July 20, 1944): Operation Valkyrie failed
On this day in 1944, German military leaders attempted to assassinate Adolf Hitler. The plan, often called the July Plot, failed. A bomb in a suitcase was detonated during Hitler’s meeting with military leaders, but he suffered only minor injuries.

The Sudanese Armed Forces have cracked open RSF defensive positions and opened the key Khartoum-El Obeid road.
Tonight we zoom in to provide an analysis and summary of the last few days in Manilla, as Ukraine and Russia largely took the spotlight.
Reports are coming out that Russian forces have been encircled north of Lyman - the question is, is that true?