Losses For Vucic And Bolsonaro, Now We Await The Israeli Elections

Conflict Tracker

Geopolitics Brazil has re-elected Lula, Serbia’s student movement has defeated Aleksandar Vučić, and Israel now faces an election that could determine whether Benjamin Netanyahu remains in power.

In Brazil’s 25 October runoff, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeated Senator Flávio Bolsonaro with approximately 51.8% of the vote, securing a fourth presidential term. Bolsonaro rejected the outcome and sought its annulment, citing confusion after voting hours were extended. Electoral authorities said the extension did not affect the result.

Lula’s victory preserves Brazil’s resistance to pressure from Washington, but his governing position remains difficult. Rightwing parties dominate Congress, while public debt, expensive borrowing and spending commitments constrain his economic programme. His immediate challenge is turning electoral survival into a workable administration. The result also leaves Brazil deeply divided, with Bolsonaro’s substantial support ensuring that the political movement built around his father remains a major force despite another defeat at the presidential ballot box.

In Serbia, Vučić conceded defeat after the Student List secured a projected parliamentary majority. He estimated the movement would win between 135 and 140 of the legislature’s 250 seats, although final results remained outstanding.

The election followed nearly two years of protests triggered by the November 2024 Novi Sad railway station canopy collapse, which killed 16 people. Demands for accountability expanded into a broader challenge to alleged corruption and political repression.

The movement’s breakthrough reflects its success in mobilising voters beyond university campuses. However, its transition into government presents a different challenge: appointing ministers, restoring institutional independence and delivering credible investigations without losing its broad coalition.

Foreign policy also remains uncertain. Serbia’s next leadership must manage European Union accession alongside relations with Russia and China. Victory therefore opens the possibility of substantial domestic reform, but does not yet establish a clear geopolitical realignment or guarantee that governing unity will endure.

And then we have…. Israel.

Israel votes on 27 October in its first national election since the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023. Netanyahu faces former military chief Gadi Eisenkot and other opposition leaders, with accountability for the attacks, military conscription and living costs central to the campaign.

A Maariv poll published on 23 October projected 48 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc and 54 for the Jewish opposition, leaving both below the 61 required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

That arithmetic makes smaller parties decisive and leaves room for prolonged negotiations, unexpected alliances or another election. Disagreements over ultra-Orthodox military service and cooperation with Arab parties could complicate any coalition. A change of prime minister would not necessarily bring a fundamental shift on Palestinian statehood, which leading Jewish parties oppose. The immediate question is therefore whether the vote produces a durable governing majority capable of addressing domestic divisions alongside Israel’s continuing regional security challenges.