Iran Strike Happening "Soon" Says Trump

Conflict Tracker

Middle East Donald Trump says the United States is “not negotiating” with Iran and that something will happen “fairly soon”, as reports emerge of US-Israeli plans for another bombing campaign after the 3 November midterm elections. His comments contrast with Tehran’s account that messages are still being exchanged through mediators.

Speaking to reporters after returning from South Carolina on 21 October, Trump said an outcome would come “one way or the other”, adding that most people expected it after the election. He did not announce an attack or provide a timetable.

The New York Times reported that American and Israeli military planners have developed options for a short, intensive campaign targeting Iranian energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone capabilities. Officials cited in the report said exercises had intensified, including flights over Iraq, while Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth discussed strikes with Benjamin Netanyahu.

Some officials believe another round of attacks could push Iran’s economy beyond its breaking point and force diplomatic concessions. The report also stressed that Trump’s approval remains uncertain; he has previously rejected proposals to resume major combat operations. And this is also my assessment, I have said from day one that Iran needs a peace more than anyone involved, even though they ‘won’ the first round. It is Iran that was facing violent protests over economic hardships, which has only worsened since the war began. Construction will cost in the hundreds of billions.

On the diplomatic side, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on 21 October that indirect contacts continued through Pakistan and Qatar. He claimed Washington had accepted Iran’s conditions for its seven-day proposal but wanted additional clauses. Those remarks do not establish that an agreement has been reached, particularly given Trump’s subsequent denial of negotiations.

Tehran wants an end to the US naval blockade, relief on oil exports, the release of frozen assets and a halt to regional hostilities before broader negotiations. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz would form part of that sequence. Washington wants the nuclear programme addressed from the outset, leaving both sides divided over who concedes first. And here we arrive at our usual issue of “red lines”, neither side wants to budge — we are experiencing the same issue in Ukraine.

The approaching elections are shaping those calculations. Various sources are suggesting Iranian officials reported that Tehran was prolonging negotiations to deny Trump a political victory. Those sources also described expectations of renewed attacks and deep distrust of Washington.

The question now is whether military preparations produce concessions or another escalation. Iran has warned that renewed strikes could trigger attacks on data centres and undersea communications cables, widening the damage beyond military targets. Planning is therefore significant, but it does not make another bombing campaign inevitable. Diplomatic contacts, public threats and preparations for war are continuing alongside each other, with no announced settlement.