ISSUE #458📅Friday, 23 October 2026⏱5 min read📑5 stories · 1 deep dive
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The Briefing
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Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. Today’s edition moves from Serbia’s student opposition making its final electoral pitch to Saudi Aramco sending staff home as Houthi attacks intensify.
Trump says Ukraine’s Starlink access is back, Tunisia faces rare unrest, and rescue crews are responding to a deadly magnitude-7 earthquake in Tibet.
In today’s Conflict Tracker, we move to Yemen as Houthi advances around Taiz are tightening the siege, but government resistance and difficult terrain threaten to turn the battle into another prolonged struggle with severe consequences for civilians.
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 23 Oct 2026
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The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
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Thousands gather at final student-led rally ahead of Serbia election
Approximately 150,000 supporters of Serbia’s student-led opposition movement gathered in central Belgrade for its final rally before Sunday’s parliamentary election. The Students’ List grew from anti-corruption protests triggered by the 2024 collapse of a railway-station canopy in Novi Sad that killed 16 people, and is now challenging Aleksandar Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party after 14 years in power. Polling indicates a close contest, while Vučić held a rival rally elsewhere in the capital as both sides made their final appeal to voters.
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Saudi Aramco tells staff to evacuate Dhahran as clashes with Houthis continue
Saudi Aramco has instructed employees to evacuate its headquarters in Dhahran and work remotely as Houthi missile and drone attacks against the kingdom intensify. The company did not disclose the reason for the order, which is its first headquarters evacuation since the Iran war began and follows extensive damage to the building from an attack earlier this month. The move came after an attack on nearby King Fahd International Airport killed two people and injured eight, while a separate attempted drone strike on Aramco’s Shaybah oilfield also left two people dead.
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Trump says Musk has restored Ukraine’s Starlink access
Donald Trump says Elon Musk has restored Ukraine’s access to SpaceX’s Starlink satellite network, but declined to confirm whether he personally contacted the billionaire about the restrictions. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump asked Musk to lift limits affecting Ukraine’s battlefield communications and drone operations, after which some US and Ukrainian officials observed improved connection speeds. Ukrainian accounts remain mixed, however, with some officials saying service has not returned to full capacity and that a speed restriction affecting military operations remains in place.
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Rare unrest flares in Tunisian capital as police clash with protesters
Tunisian police fired tear gas at protesters in Ettadhamen, near the capital Tunis, after demonstrators blocked roads, burned tyres and threw stones at security forces. The unrest followed the death of a man detained on drug charges, with his family alleging police violence while local media reported that he died after swallowing drugs; the Interior Ministry has not commented. Separate protests erupted in Jebeniana, Agareb and Sfax, adding to tensions days after thousands rallied against President Kais Saied over his governance and Tunisia’s worsening economic conditions.
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Magnitude-7 earthquake hits China’s Tibet region, killing 16 people
A magnitude-7 earthquake struck China’s Tibet region late on Thursday, killing at least 16 people and injuring 32, including 11 who were seriously hurt, according to state media. The shallow quake struck a remote, high-altitude area of Nagqu in northern Tibet, approximately 400 kilometres from Lhasa, and caused at least 339 homes to collapse. Firefighters and emergency crews have been deployed as rescue operations continue, with displaced residents housed in tents and several smaller aftershocks recorded across the region.
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Daily Deep Dive
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Analysis · middle east
Taiz Under Siege: As Houthi's Advance, Fears Grow Over Prolonged Battle
Houthi advances around Taiz are tightening the siege, but government resistance and difficult terrain threaten to turn the battle into another prolonged struggle with severe consequences for civilians.
Basedment Analysis
Conflict Tracker
Middle East The battle for Taiz is becoming a contest of endurance, with Houthi forces tightening their grip on supply routes while government defenders resist around the city’s mountainous southern approaches. Recent advances increase pressure on forces aligned with Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), but do not establish that the city’s fall is imminent.
On October 22, the Critical Threats Project and Institute for the Study of War assessed that the Houthis had almost certainly captured a stretch of the Taiz–Aden road through the al-Dhabab valley. Geolocated footage indicated positions connecting their frontlines southwest of Taiz with areas farther south. This could accelerate Houthi resupply and reinforcement, improving coordination across the surrounding battlefronts.
Suriyakmaps reported Houthi advances around Tabat Medri, al-Murabba’a and Wadi al-Arin, bringing fighting towards al-Maliha and 30th Street. Journalist Ali al-Sakani, citing local sources, reported a government counterattack recapturing Mount al-Manarah near al-Misrakh. These accounts suggest a fluid battle rather than an uninterrupted Houthi advance; the individual territorial claims remain independently unconfirmed here.
Government-held positions around Jabal Sabr offer defensive advantages, while dense neighbourhoods complicate Houthi attempts to advance through western Taiz. However, defensible terrain cannot replace reliable supplies. Prolonged isolation could weaken the defenders’ ammunition stocks, medical support and ability to rotate exhausted troops.
The clearest historical parallel is Taiz’s own siege beginning in 2015. Houthi forces restricted access while opposing fighters retained central districts, creating a prolonged struggle over roads, checkpoints and surrounding heights. Human Rights Watch documented blocked food and medical deliveries. Road closures persisted for years, with the important al-Qasr route reopening in June 2024 after nine years.
The difference is the reported tightening of southern access: the earlier siege left residents dependent on difficult mountain routes, whereas current reporting describes a more extensive encirclement. Civilians again face rising prices, fuel shortages and interrupted healthcare as military pressure constricts everyday survival.
Suriyakmaps also claims two commanders negotiated departures to Aden, but this does not establish a broader surrender agreement. Taiz’s history cautions against predicting a quick resolution: negotiations could reduce suffering, while continued fighting risks another prolonged siege without guaranteeing either side a decisive victory.
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Tweet of the Day
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Tweet of the Day
internbrah
@internbrah · Twitter / X
The McRib is back on 10/27. BTC historically goes up >2x after the McRib returns. Don't fade the McRib. Not financial advice.
TODAY IN HISTORY (Oct 23, 1739): The War of Jenkins’ Ear begins
On this day in 1739, the story of an ear in a jar started a war. Fought between Great Britain and Spain, the War of Jenkins’ Ear was precipitated by an incident that took place in 1738 when Brit Robert Jenkins appeared before a committee of the House of Commons and exhibited what he alleged to be his own amputated ear, cut off in April 1731 in the West Indies by Spanish coast guards, who had boarded his ship, pillaged it, and then set it adrift.
