Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. Today’s edition opens in Yemen, where government forces are pushing back against the Houthis as renewed attacks leave dozens wounded and Saudi oil facilities temporarily offline.
Elsewhere, Trump’s unusual map has raised eyebrows in Iceland, Britain is preparing to ban trade with Israeli settlements, and Brazil’s presidential race is shaping up as a nail-biter.
And, today’s conflict tracker takes us to Yemen as the information on the ground is murky, but we’ve covered the last 24 hours as the Saudi’s look to expand their role in the conflict.
Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces have launched a counteroffensive against the Houthis across several fronts, including Taiz, Hodeidah, al-Bayda and al-Jawf, following a recent rebel push towards the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Presidential Leadership Council chief Rashad al-Alimi claimed government advances and vowed to restore state control nationwide, including in the Houthi-held capital Sanaa, while the Houthis said they had repelled attacks in al-Jawf. The World Health Organization said at least 728 people have been killed or wounded since 23 August, with approximately 21,000 displaced from Taiz alone.
At least 73 people, including women and children, were wounded in Houthi attacks on the southern Saudi cities of Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Najran, according to the Saudi-led coalition. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry said fires erupted at several oil facilities and utilities, temporarily halting operations while emergency teams assessed the damage. Houthi officials portrayed the attacks as retaliation for alleged Saudi strikes in Yemen, while the coalition called them a dangerous escalation and vowed a firm response.
Iceland’s Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir summoned US Ambassador Billy Long after President Donald Trump shared a map depicting Iceland, Greenland and North America beneath the colours of the American flag. Iceland’s Foreign Ministry said Gunnarsdóttir told Long the social-media post was “entirely inappropriate,” while Trump offered no explanation for the image. Trump has not proposed taking control of Iceland, although the incident follows his campaign to acquire Greenland and Long’s earlier joke (later withdrawn with an apology) that Iceland could become the 52nd US state.
The UK is set to ban trade in goods produced in Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, with Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband expected to outline the policy in Parliament. The government says the measure is intended to protect the viability of a two-state solution amid concerns that Israel’s planned E1 settlement expansion would divide Palestinian territory. Implementation details have not yet been disclosed, while Israel disputes the widely held international position that its West Bank settlements are illegal.
Thousands of supporters of right-wing presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro rallied in São Paulo on Brazil’s Independence Day, with researchers estimating attendance at approximately 28,500. Demonstrators criticised President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who convicted Flávio’s father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, over a coup plot. A new Quaest poll placed Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula level at 41% in a potential runoff ahead of October’s election, within the survey’s two-point margin of error.
Yemeni Civil War Yemen’s conflict escalated on two connected fronts over the past 24 hours: government-aligned forces reportedly expanded their positions in Al-Jawf, while Houthi strikes against Saudi Arabia increased the pressure on Riyadh to deepen its military involvement.
Saudi authorities reported 73 civilians wounded in attacks on Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Najran. Fires and temporary shutdowns at energy facilities demonstrate an economic impact beyond the casualty count. The Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks against industrial infrastructure, Aramco facilities and King Khalid Air Base. These remain claimed targets; the full damage assessment is outstanding.
The apparent Houthi calculation is to make Saudi support for Yemen’s government increasingly expensive. However, striking civilians and energy infrastructure could strengthen Riyadh’s willingness to provide airpower, intelligence and logistical support. Saudi statements threatening operational measures indicate that response options remain open, without establishing their eventual scale.
Inside Yemen, the reported capture of Al-Yatamah is operationally significant. Footage described by local reporting places tribal leader Sheikh Hamad bin Fadhl and Emergency Forces commander Yasser bin Saleh Thawaba at its market. The settlement sits on the N556 corridor connecting Al-Jawf with northern border routes, making control valuable for supplying government-aligned formations. See Here
Combined with reported mobilisation east of Al-Hazm, gains around Al-Yatamah could enable pressure against the provincial capital from the north and east. That creates a potential problem for Houthi reinforcement and supply movements, although it does not yet establish an encirclement or imminent government assault.
Elsewhere, government forces reported airstrikes against Houthi positions. Houthi authorities accused Saudi Arabia of striking Al-Hazm’s prison, killing seven people, including a child. Saudi responsibility remained unconfirmed in the reporting reviewed. Government claims of advances in Taiz, Hodeidah and Al-Bayda also require independent verification.
Politically, Maj. Gen. Sameer Al-Sabri’s reported announcement that the leadership has decided to retake Sana’a raises the campaign’s declared ambitions. The immediate military test is whether dispersed advances can become sustained pressure on major Houthi-held centres. Al-Hazm is therefore a key indicator. Saudi retaliation is the other: together, they will show whether this escalation develops into a coordinated offensive or another costly exchange without a lasting shift in territorial control.
My big question? Will and can Iran get involved… In my first ever podcast, the day that the Third Gulf War broke out, I specifically raised the point of whether Iran will be able to wield its hard power assets during a time when they were under attack — and new conflict may provide the answer I have been looking for. With Hezbollah, the support largely came from retraining and intelligence support and based off the videos of Houthi drone and missile strikes, I suspect the same. However, will we see Iranian missile strikes on government positions?

This was the simplest map I could find that represented the southern (and most active) front. However, this is from the source IranWatcher — known anti-Iranian regime account.
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