ISSUE #386📅Wednesday, 15 July 2026⏱6 min read📑5 stories · 1 deep dive
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The Briefing
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Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. From billionaire boardrooms to the frontlines of global security, today’s headlines cover a little bit of everything, with Warren Buffett redirecting a major charitable donation, Greta Thunberg facing arrest at a defence industry protest, and tensions rising across key maritime routes.
Meanwhile, Iran is threatening further disruption to global shipping lanes, Lithuania warns of potential Russian hybrid threats, and Lebanon and Israel return to the negotiating table in an effort to stabilise their fragile border.
And in today’s deep dive, we look at why Warren Buffett has quietly cut Bill Gates loose over Epstein, ending a two-decade partnership worth more than $47 billion without ever explaining himself.
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 15 Jul 2026
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The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
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Billionaire Warren Buffett stops donations to Bill Gates charity
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett has ended more than two decades of donations to the Gates Foundation, redirecting his latest US$6 billion charitable gift to four foundations run by his children. The decision follows public scrutiny over Bill Gates' past meetings with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, with Buffett confirming he has not spoken to Gates since the revelations emerged. The Gates Foundation thanked Buffett for his longstanding support, while reiterating that it remains financially strong through Gates' own philanthropic commitments.
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Greta Thunberg detained at Rheinmetall protest in Berlin
Climate activist Greta Thunberg was detained by German police during a protest outside Rheinmetall's Berlin offices, where demonstrators blocked access to the facility and called on the defence manufacturer to halt arms supplies to Israel. More than 30 activists took part in the demonstration, with some gluing themselves to the ground as police removed protesters and carried out identity checks before detaining several participants. The protest is part of a broader campaign targeting European defence companies over military exports to Israel, as demonstrations continue across Europe amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
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Iran threatens to block more vital seaways as Trump orders renewed Iran blockade
Iran has threatened to expand maritime disruption beyond the Strait of Hormuz after Donald Trump ordered the reinstatement of a naval blockade on Iranian ports following renewed attacks on commercial shipping. Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders warned that, if the blockade continues, allied groups such as the Houthis could target the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, placing another of the world's most strategically important energy shipping routes at risk. The escalating confrontation has heightened concerns over global oil supplies and maritime security, as both sides continue to exchange military strikes across the Gulf.
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Lithuanian President warns against potential Russian attacks
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda has warned that intelligence suggests Russia may be planning attacks on critical infrastructure, prompting Lithuania to strengthen security around key energy and transport facilities. He said the intelligence does not indicate when or where any potential attack could occur, nor does it confirm that Lithuania itself would be the direct target, but noted the threat reflects broader concerns over Russian hybrid activities in the Baltic region. The warning comes as NATO continues to reinforce its presence along its eastern flank, with Lithuania and other Baltic states maintaining heightened vigilance following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
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Lebanon, Israel hold talks in Rome on implementing framework deal
Lebanon and Israel have resumed U.S.-brokered talks in Rome aimed at implementing a framework agreement designed to end hostilities and facilitate an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Discussions are focused on establishing pilot zones where Lebanese security forces would deploy, militant groups would be disarmed, and Israeli troops would gradually withdraw, although officials from both sides have cautioned that significant progress is unlikely in the near term. The talks reflect continued diplomatic efforts to stabilise the Israel-Lebanon border following months of conflict, with both delegations agreeing to continue negotiations despite major outstanding disagreements.
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Daily Deep Dive
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Analysis · iran
Why has Warren Buffett cut Bill Gates loose over Epstein?
Today we look at why Warren Buffett has quietly cut Bill Gates loose over Epstein, ending a two-decade partnership
Basedment Analysis
Why has Warren Buffett cut Bill Gates loose over Epstein?
The announcement that ended the largest philanthropic partnership in modern history was notable mostly for what it left out. On Tuesday, Warren Buffett confirmed his annual mid-year donation of roughly six billion dollars in Berkshire Hathaway stock, twelve million Class B shares, distributed across four family foundations run by his daughter Susie and his sons Howard and Peter.
Nowhere in the statement did the Gates Foundation appear, an omission that lands with considerable weight given the organisation has absorbed more than forty-seven billion dollars of Berkshire stock since 2006, when Buffett wrote a letter describing himself as irrevocably committing to donate shares throughout his lifetime. He did not explain the decision, he did not name Gates, and he has not spoken to him since the Justice Department released its Epstein files in February. The reasoning has been left to inference, which is what makes the question worth asking properly.
Epstein pictured with Gates in an undated photo from the latest files
What is actually being sanctioned?
Bill Gates, who is seventy, has not been accused of any crime. He told Congress last month that he met Epstein in 2011, that several subsequent meetings about potential philanthropy went nowhere, and that the relationship had ended by December 2014, after which Epstein attempted unsuccessfully to use knowledge of his marital infidelity as leverage to force him back into contact. He has expressed regret repeatedly and denied witnessing any criminal conduct.
What the February files produced instead was proximity: photographs of Gates with the financier and with women whose faces were redacted, and emails showing Epstein in communication with foundation staff. So the answer to why Buffett walked appears to be association rather than conduct, delivered without any articulated finding. The Wall Street Journal reported last month that he was waiting on a review by the law firm WilmerHale into the foundation's Epstein ties before deciding whether to keep giving. Whether Tuesday's silence constitutes a verdict on that review, or a way of exiting without ever having to deliver one, is not something either party is willing to clarify. The Gates Foundation did not respond to requests for comment. Neither did Berkshire.
The problem with a promise
The structural consequence is more serious than the symbolism. Buffett's 2006 letter did not merely offer money, it instructed the foundation to spend his donations and told it that it could rely on his pledge to immediately and permanently expand its activities. An institution that builds global health programmes around that assurance is not making a reckless bet, it is doing what it was told.
Ray Madoff, the Boston College law professor who examined Buffett's giving in her book on the American tax code, puts the tension plainly. A promise of a future gift is generally not legally binding without consideration, but what distinguishes Buffett's letter is precisely that instruction to rely on it and expand accordingly, which she suggests could create a claim for the foundation if it relied on the promise to its detriment. Whether anyone would ever be willing to sue Warren Buffett is another matter.
Accountability by capital
The honest answer to why Buffett cut Gates loose may simply be that he could, and that no other mechanism was going to. Nothing legal has happened to Gates and nothing legal appears likely to. What happened instead is that a ninety-five-year-old man moved six billion dollars to his children, said nothing, and let the absence speak. That is judgment administered privately, by capital, on terms its subject never gets to contest, and it is worth asking whether that represents a system working or one that has simply given up on the alternatives. Sources Available upon request
TODAY IN HISTORY (July 15, 1835): A war fought over Toledo
The only bloodshed during the Toledo War, fought between Ohio and Michigan over a disputed border, occurred on this day in a Toledo tavern when Ohio partisan Two Stickney stabbed Michigan Sheriff Joseph Wood with a penknife. (Wood survived.) The “war” ended two years later with Toledo awarded to Ohio and the resource-rich Upper Peninsula to Michigan.
