ISSUE #394📅Thursday, 24 July 2025⏱7 min read📑5 stories · 1 deep dive
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The Briefing
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Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. In today’s briefing: a tragic plane crash in Russia’s Far East, rising tensions in the Black Sea, and fresh diplomatic moves between Greece and Libya.
Thailand and Cambodia edge closer to open conflict after an F‑16 airstrike near their contested border, while Australia’s easing of U.S. beef import rules sparks both praise and concern. We also cover a Russian missile strike on Odesa’s critical port infrastructure, adding more pressure to Ukraine’s trade routes.
We look into the rich history of the current feud between Cambodia and Thailand, that stretches almost 900km and many centuries. Political betrayals, family dynasties, bloody conflicts and more.
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 24 Jul 2025
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The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
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Plane with 49 people on board crashes in Russia’s far east
A passenger plane operated by Angara Airlines crashed on July 24 in Russia’s Far East while flying from Blagoveshchensk to Tynda, carrying around 43 passengers. Rescue teams, alerted by a Rossaviatsiya Mi‑8 helicopter, found the burning wreckage about 15 km from Tynda in a densely forested area, and authorities currently fear there are no survivors. Russian officials have launched a formal investigation into the crash of the aging Soviet-era aircraft, which had been extended in service life despite parts shortages caused by Western sanctions.
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Thailand launches airstrike on Cambodia as border clash escalates
Thai forces escalated a heated border clash on July 24 by deploying an F‑16 fighter jet to bomb what they described as a Cambodian military position near the contested Ta Moan Thom temple - an operation that killed at least two civilians and brought the death toll to around twelve, including eleven civilians overall. The action follows weeks of tension after Thai troops were injured by landmines prompting Thailand to shut border crossings, recall its ambassador, and expel Cambodia’s envoy. Both nations trade blame over who fired first while evacuations continue, and regional actors like ASEAN and China are calling for de-escalation.
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Greece invites Libya to Maritime Zone talks to ease strained ties
Greece has invited Libya’s internationally recognised Tripoli government to begin discussions on setting maritime boundaries and exclusive economic zones in the Mediterranean, aiming to repair strained relations after the 2019 deal between Libya’s GNA and Turkey near Crete. Prime Minister Mitsotakis expressed optimism about progress, noting Greece is open to engaging both the Tripoli-based government and the parallel eastern administration in Benghazi . The move not only seeks to clarify overlapping claims ahead of a hydrocarbon tender off Crete, but also complements Athens’ broader goal of cooperation with Libya on migration issues.
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Russian overnight attack hit Odessa region sea ports & damages logistics sites
Russia carried out an overnight strike on the Odesa region, targeting civilian infrastructure including sea ports, transport hubs, and residential areas, according to Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba on Telegram. The attack damaged logistics facilities crucial for Ukraine’s grain exports and trade routes, raising fresh concerns about the ongoing impact on its economic lifelines. This latest strike followed reciprocal drone attacks between Kyiv and Moscow, highlighting how the Black Sea corridor remains a contested and strategic front.
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Australia lifts US beef restrictions slammed by Trump
Australia announced it will ease long-standing restrictions on U.S. beef imports this week, expanding access to meat from cattle born in Canada or Mexico if they’re processed in the US, a change welcomed by the Trump administration as a win against “non‑scientific trade barriers”. Agriculture Minister Julie Collins emphasised that the decision follows a rigorous, science-based assessment and maintains strict biosecurity standards. While U.S. officials see this as a major market access victory, local farmers and opposition MPs have raised concerns about potential disease risks and called for an independent review.
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Daily Deep Dive
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Analysis · military
What Sparked the Cambodia–Thailand Border Clash?
Your daily dose of geopolitical updates and strategic analysis. Unbiased, but not unbased.
Basedment Analysis
A new round of border skirmishes has erupted along the Thailand-Cambodia frontier. The territorial dispute traces its roots back centuries to the old Khmer and Siamese kingdoms and has since evolved, shaped by nationalism and political tensions. Is long-term peace possible, nationalism on both sides is souring any chance of that. History The Hindu temple of Prasat Preah Vihear is at the centre of the conflict, with politicians on both sides using cultural and territorial divisions to drive power politics in the region. The temple dates back to the 11th century and was part of the golden age of the Khmer kingdom (modern-day Cambodia). By the 15th century, the kingdom was in decline, and the Siamese had invaded and sacked its capital, Angkor Thom. By the late 18th century, most of the former Khmer territory was under Siamese control, leading Cambodian King Norodom to request French protectorate status in 1863. The dispute over Preah Vihear stems from a 1907 French map placing the site in Cambodian territory, which Thailand later contested. Cambodia took the case to the ICJ in 1959, and in 1962, the court ruled that the temple belongs to Cambodia, citing Thailand’s earlier acceptance of the French-drawn map. Although Thailand accepted the decision, resentment lingered over perceived territorial loss to colonial powers.
2000–2013 Timeline: In 2008, Cambodia’s bid to list Preah Vihear as a UNESCO site reignited tensions. Thailand withdrew support following domestic backlash, leading to a military standoff and clashes. Fighting in 2011 caused casualties and drew international concern. Nationalism on both sides escalated the conflict, with ASEAN unable to mediate effectively.
2013 ICJ Ruling: The ICJ reaffirmed Cambodian ownership of the temple but left surrounding land unresolved, keeping the dispute open.
Family dynasties broken, leaked phone calls and more For over a decade, Thailand–Cambodia relations remained relatively stable, largely due to the close ties between former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and (also former Prime Minister) Cambodia’s Hun Sen. Many expected this relationship to continue after Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, became prime minister, especially given her family’s connections to Hun Sen. However, her inexperience and fragile coalition made her politically vulnerable.
In June 2025, Paetongtarn privately called (now Senate President, with significant influence) Hun Sen to seek help easing border tensions. Days later, Hun Sen released a portion of the call, in which she referred to him as “uncle” and criticised a Thai military commander. The leak triggered a political backlash: 36 senators filed complaints, the Bhumjaithai Party left the coalition, protests broke out, and investor confidence dropped. On 1 July, she was suspended from office and reassigned to a lesser role while under investigation.
Her father is also facing up to 15 years in prison in a royal defamation case. It appears Hun Sen saw the family relationship as expendable in pursuit of Cambodia’s broader geopolitical objectives. To strengthen its position, Cambodia has significantly increased purchases of Chinese military equipment over the past decade.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra
Border conflict and nationalism Border tensions have grown since early 2025, leading to a clash on 28 May. In February, Cambodian forces visited the disputed Prasat Ta Muen Thom temple and sang a patriotic song, prompting objections from Thai troops over perceived claims of sovereignty. This led to several sporadic small-arms skirmishes across the border. The altercation was shared on social media, which led to even larger fanning of nationalist driven dissent by civilians in both nations.
Today (24th of July) clashes between Thailand and Cambodia have escalated into intense fighting, resulting in the deaths of at least 11 Thai civilians and injuries to others. The violence began near the disputed Ta Muen Thom temple and has since spread to six border areas. Thailand responded with air strikes, accusing Cambodia of attacking civilian sites, including a hospital.
Process for Peace? According to Matthew Wheeler of the International Crisis Group, existing bilateral forums, particularly the Joint Boundary Commission created under a 2000 agreement, still offer the best route to a long-term solution. Yet the process has been sluggish; the commission only met again in June 2025 after a prolonged hiatus and failed to make progress on the four areas currently under review at the ICJ. Meanwhile, other de-escalation channels, such as the General and Regional Border Committees, remain underused. A scheduled meeting of local commanders in late June was cancelled amid the deepening political crisis.
TODAY IN HISTORY (July 24, 1148): The Crusader armies of the Second Crusade began the Siege of Damascus, aiming to capture the strategically important city in Syria. The campaign quickly collapsed due to poor coordination, political mistrust among the Crusader leaders, and a strong counterattack by Muslim defenders. The failed siege marked a major turning point, weakening Crusader unity and discrediting the Second Crusade across Europe.
