Week Three Is One of Escalation An Overview Of The Last 7 Days

Week 3 can be described in one word: escalation.

What we’ve seen over the past few days is a clear shift from controlled strikes to targeting economic and strategic infrastructure. Israel hitting the South Pars gas field is a major step. This is not just another military target, this is the core of Iran’s energy economy. It is also something the U.S. historically avoids due to the global consequences. Yet the strike still happened, either enabled through CENTCOM airspace, ignored, or simply not prevented.

Iran’s response came fast, within a few hours we saw the first hits on Qatari and Saudi sites. Multiple waves of attacks hit six refineries and ports across four different countries. This was not symbolic retaliation. It was a message. Any strike on Iranian infrastructure will be paid for across the entire region, not just within Iran’s borders. Allies of the U.S. and Israel are now directly part of the equation whether they like it or not. This is the escalation ladder in its clearest form.

This is where the situation starts compounding. According to recent reporting, the UAE is preparing for a conflict that could last up to nine months. Saudi Arabia has opened King Fahd Air Base to U.S. forces. There are also indications that Washington is pushing Riyadh to take a more active strike role, while Trump and MBS remain in constant communication. The regional architecture is shifting from indirect involvement to something much more direct.

We incurred a $20 billion loss at the facility we built for $26 billion two years ago.

The problem now is escalation psychology. This is effectively a standoff where no actor wants to be seen backing down. Internal pressures, political optics, and credibility all start to play a role. If one side steps back, it risks looking weak, and that alone can drive further escalation even if it is not strategically rational. I would take Trump’s words about “winding down the conflict” as bait to see the reaction from allies, adversaries and most importantly voters. Mixed messaging is classic Trump rhetoric, given he says this as the ambhibious landing fleet heads to Iran.

At the same time, Iran is clearly still in the fight. We are seeing increased missile salvos, possibly aided by weather conditions that reduce visibility for Western ISR. There are also growing signs that the airspace is more contested than initially assumed. Reports of an F-35 being hit, along with another Israeli F-16 forced to evade air defense missiles, point to a more complex environment. And just to clarify, I do believe the alliance has close-to-air superiority in certain parts of Iran. Warthogs and F-18s conducting strafing runs are good evidence of that. Equally, what we’ve seen with the F-35, and now Israeli F-16, indicates that not all air defenses have been knocked out. Note: As I write this the IRGC are saying they’ve “hit a third F-16” – unconfirmed.

Iran Can Fire Further Than Thought?

One point that is being overlooked is range. Iran reportedly launched intermediate-range ballistic missiles toward Diego Garcia. Neither struck the base, but that is not the takeaway. The fact they attempted it changes the picture. If Iran is approaching a capability to threaten assets at that distance, the urgency behind recent strikes starts to make a lot more sense.

The Trump-Bibi Split?

This is also the second clear public sign we’re seeing differing war goals emerge between the U.S. and Israel. Washington appears focused on controlled escalation and maintaining off-ramps, while Israel is targeting deeper systemic disruption, including energy infrastructure and key political figures. The strikes on South Pars and figures like Larijani suggest Israel is prioritising long-term destabilisation, potentially regime change. Meanwhile, U.S. messaging has been inconsistent, at times distancing itself from Israeli actions. Whether this is deliberate political cover or genuine divergence, the gap in strategic objectives is becoming harder to ignore.

Iraq As A Major Front?

One aspect of this war that has surprised me is high-level of involvement of the Iraq front. The Iran-backed militia’s have definitely been a major nuisance for American forces in the region. From disrupting northern Iraq in moments when we were looking at possible Kurdish intervention in the conflict, to continuous attacks on the U.S. embassy and various bases. A temporary five-day pause in attacks on the U.S. embassy has been announced by Kataib Hezbollah, but it remains fragile and conditional on reduced strikes and intelligence activity. At the same time, Iran believes Israel is deliberately expanding the conflict into Iraq, aiming to pressure Shia armed groups, though major factions remain reluctant to fully enter the war (Source: HamidRezaAz via X)

Israeli Air Defence Struggling?

We’re beginning to see more impacts in Israel but that could be due to other factors besides interceptor fatigue — failure of censorship etc. What is more interesting is recent security footage showing the 16 seconds between a missile impact and the start of air raid sirens. Is this a one off? Failure of detection systems? Or possibly a short-range missile launched from Hezbollah that slipped through? Other sources are now stating that upon hearing air raid sirens soon after they can hear the sounds of jets — suggesting a reliance on jets over interceptors. Important hits in just the last 48 hours are on Israelis Haifa refinery and the Ben Ami military base. As a counter-point however, a recent video showed a Iron Dome interceptor hit an Iranian missile in the very last second, flying practically horizontally. There are clearly improvements in targeting on the short and medium-range AD. Israeli Siren Footage

Sources available upon request