ISSUE #461📅Wednesday, 28 October 2026⏱5 min read📑5 stories · 1 deep dive
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The Briefing
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Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. Today’s edition moves from possible US sanctions relief for a Russian investment fund to Flávio Bolsonaro’s abrupt departure for America after Brazil’s election.
Israel faces coalition limbo, Saudi Arabia assesses a fire near its largest refinery, and another US strike on a suspected trafficking boat raises fresh legal questions.
In today’s Conflict Tracker, Fire Point denies cancelling Ukraine’s Flamingo missile as questions persist over its production claims and battlefield effectiveness.
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 28 Oct 2026
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The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
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Trump considering lifting sanctions on Russian Direct Investment Fund
The Trump administration is considering lifting sanctions on the Russian Direct Investment Fund, Russia’s sovereign wealth fund headed by Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev. Moscow requested the relief so the fund could facilitate Russian diesel sales to the United States, and the US Treasury is reviewing its application through standard procedures. The fund and Dmitriev were sanctioned in February 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and no final decision on removing the restrictions has been announced.
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Brazil’s Flavio Bolsonaro flees to US after election loss
Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has left Brazil for the United States after losing Sunday’s presidential election to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, according to multiple sources. Bolsonaro departed after failing to comply with a Supreme Court order to surrender his passports during a money-laundering investigation, which he denies, while Brazil’s Federal Police said he did not leave through a regular migration point. The US State Department says Bolsonaro, his wife and two daughters will receive visas, although his precise whereabouts and how he departed Brazil remain unclear.
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Netanyahu and opposition face close fight in election with no clear winner
Israel’s election has produced no clear winner, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc and the opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot both falling short of the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority. Partial results showed Netanyahu’s bloc leading with a projected 56 seats, while Eisenkot’s bloc and the Arab parties together held 64, although counting was continuing and later ballots could alter the distribution. The outcome is expected to trigger difficult coalition negotiations, with the Arab parties potentially holding the balance of power while Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister.
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Saudi Arabia contains fire near Ras Tanura Oil Hub after Houthi attack
Saudi Arabia has contained a fire near the Ras Tanura oil complex after an attack in the kingdom’s Eastern Province, although the extent of any damage remains unclear. Yemen’s Houthis claimed that a ballistic missile struck the refinery and caused the blaze, while Saudi authorities confirmed intercepting three missiles aimed at the region but did not verify a direct hit on the facility. Ras Tanura includes Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery and a major oil-export terminal, with officials yet to report any casualties or disruption to production and loading operations.
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US Military says it struck vessel in Eastern Pacific, killing five
The US military says it struck a speedboat in the eastern Pacific on Tuesday, killing five people aboard. US Southern Command said intelligence showed the vessel was operating along established drug-trafficking routes, but it did not identify those killed or release evidence that the boat was carrying narcotics. The attack brings the reported death toll from more than 70 US strikes on suspected trafficking vessels since September 2025 to at least 240, amid continuing criticism from human-rights experts over the campaign’s legality.
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Daily Deep Dive
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Analysis · russia-ukraine war
Is Ukraine's FP-5 Flamingo Cruise Missile A Failure?
In today’s Conflict Tracker, Fire Point denies cancelling Ukraine’s Flamingo missile as questions persist over its production claims and battlefield effectiveness.
Basedment Analysis
Conflict Tracker
Ukraine Russia Fire Point has denied cancelling Ukraine’s FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile, but the controversy has renewed scrutiny of its battlefield effectiveness and ambitious production claims. I’ve been critical of the Flamingo’s for much of 2025, but they began to show some promise in 2026 only for the Russians to start adapting once more.
The dispute intensified after Ukrainian Telegram commentator Stanislav Buniatov claimed the project had closed because it was ineffective. Fire Point rejected that claim, saying it would continue refining Flamingo while prioritising the FP-7 and FP-9 ballistic missiles. Additional cruise-missile models are not currently planned.
A separate controversy centred on resurfaced comments by CEO Iryna Terekh from a July interview. According to Ukrainian outlet Gordon, an edited clip omitted the question about developing other cruise-missile variants, making her answer appear to concern abandoning Flamingo itself.
Terekh also described the missile as more significant politically than as a war-winning weapon, arguing that its purpose was to demonstrate Ukraine’s ability to reach unexpected targets inside Russia. Critics, including analyst Thorkill, argue this framing clashes with the much stronger promotional language previously surrounding the programme.
There is a documented basis for examining those expectations, which Thorkill has done a good job of providing. In an October 2025 interview with ZN.ua, chief designer Denys Shtilerman said Fire Point was producing two to three missiles daily, while stressing that output depended on orders. He also acknowledged that testing individual engines created production difficulties.
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Today in History
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This Day in History
TODAY IN HISTORY (Oct 28, 1886): Statue of Liberty dedicated
On this day in 1886 U.S. President Grover Cleveland officially dedicated the Statue of Liberty—a gift from the people of France to the people of the United States—on Bedloe’s (later Liberty) Island in Upper New York Bay.
Thorkill estimates approximately 150 combat launches, while DelwinStrategy places the total around 190–220. These are competing assessments drawn from public reporting, rather than audited inventories or independently established totals. They suggest a substantial gap between advertised production rates and publicly identified employment, but cannot establish how many missiles were manufactured.
Crucially, production does not equal launches. Stockpiling, testing, procurement volumes and incomplete disclosure can all affect that comparison. Likewise, Russian interception claims cannot reliably establish either launch totals or the missile’s overall success rate.
The evidence therefore supports a narrower conclusion: Fire Point says Flamingo production continues, while ballistic missiles receive development priority. That clarification does not resolve legitimate questions about reliability, accuracy, output and value for money. Assessing the programme requires verified strike outcomes and delivery figures, rather than either promotional claims or an unsubstantiated declaration that it has been cancelled because it failed on the battlefield. From the data I have seen, the Flamingo’s tend to work when batched together with other western cruise missiles rather than being used individually. Their biggest issue is large heat signature and slow speed — just compare it’s size to a Tomahawk and you will get an understanding as to why they’re so easy to hit.
Is Ukraine's FP-5 Flamingo Cruise Missile A Failure? — The Basedment
