ISSUE #372📅Wednesday, 24 June 2026⏱4 min read📑5 stories · 1 deep dive
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The Briefing
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Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. Today’s briefing spans the Middle East, Europe and the Indo-Pacific: the US Senate has moved to curb further military action against Iran, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio is in the Gulf trying to reassure partners over Washington’s proposed deal with Tehran.
The Israel–Lebanon ceasefire is already under strain after deadly violence in southern Lebanon, while Britain, France and Germany have raised concerns over Chinese maritime activity near Taiwan. Ukraine, meanwhile, is pushing ahead with its economic integration agenda by submitting an updated bid to join the OECD.
In today’s conflict tracker, Ukrainian units are reporting that the situation is already being seen as "lost" as Russia takes the central part of the city.
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 24 Jun 2026
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The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
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US Senate votes to pass Iran war powers resolution in blow to Trump
The U.S. Senate passed a bipartisan war powers resolution by 50 votes to 48, directing President Donald Trump to end military action against Iran unless Congress authorises it. Four Republican senators joined most Democrats in backing the measure, which had already passed the House and represents a rare congressional rebuke of the president’s handling of the conflict. As a concurrent resolution, however, its legal force is disputed and the White House has said it considers the measure unconstitutional, meaning its practical effect could ultimately be decided in the courts.
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Rubio arrives in UAE with aim to head off Gulf Arab unease over Iran deal
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in the United Arab Emirates at the start of a three-country Gulf tour aimed at reassuring regional partners over Washington’s tentative agreement with Iran. He is due to visit Kuwait and Bahrain, where officials are seeking clarity on the proposed sanctions relief, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and whether the framework will address Iran’s missile programme and support for armed groups in the region. Rubio said the agreement’s intended end to regional hostilities would require Iran to halt backing for groups including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, though Gulf states remain wary of concessions that could strengthen Tehran.
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Israel troops kill two in South Lebanon, testing Iran-linked ceasefire
Israeli gunfire killed two people in Nabatieh al-Fawqa in southern Lebanon, according to Lebanon’s Civil Defence and health ministry, in the first reported fatalities from Israeli fire since the latest ceasefire took hold. Lebanon’s state news agency said the two were near a bulldozer clearing a road, while the Israeli military said its troops had fired on Hezbollah operatives who had entered an Israeli-declared security zone and ignored warning shots. Hezbollah called the incident a ceasefire violation, highlighting the fragility of the truce, which is tied to wider US–Iran diplomacy and efforts to halt fighting on the Israel–Lebanon front.
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UK, France, Germany raise alarm about Chinese activities off Eastern Taiwan
UK, France and Germany have jointly raised concerns over Chinese coast guard and survey operations off eastern Taiwan, warning they risk undermining regional stability and freedom of navigation. The three European nations, via their de facto embassies in Taipei, said they oppose any unilateral attempts to change the status quo through coercion or force. China says the activities are lawful maritime operations within its claimed jurisdiction, while Taiwan has accused Beijing of increasing pressure in the region.
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Ukraine submits updated OECD membership bid
Ukraine has submitted an updated application to join the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), as Kyiv pursues deeper integration with Western economic and political institutions. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko lodged the revised bid after talks in Kyiv with OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann, with Ukraine seeking candidate-country status as early as this autumn. Kyiv has worked with the OECD on governance and reform standards for several years, and says membership would support its longer-term economic recovery and European integration agenda amid the war with Russia.
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Daily Deep Dive
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Analysis · russia-ukraine war
Ukrainian Elite Units: Kostyantynivka Is Seen As "Lost"
Ukrainian units are reporting that the situation is already being seen as "lost" as Russia takes the central part of the city.
Basedment Analysis
Russia-Ukraine
According to soldiers from Ukraine’s "Assault Special Poison" unit, the situation in Kostyantynivka has deteriorated significantly, with some troops reportedly viewing the city as effectively lost if current trends continue.
They describe Russian forces as steadily expanding their presence across the central, western, and northern sectors of the city, while maintaining constant pressure on Ukrainian defensive positions. One of the most critical challenges is logistics. Areas highlighted as still accessible to Ukrainian forces can reportedly only be supplied by heavy drones, but Russian surveillance assets closely monitor these deliveries. Once supplies are dropped, Russian forces frequently strike the location, using the delivery point to identify Ukrainian positions.
The soldiers also report that Russian forces maintain near-continuous oversight of the main routes leading into Kostyantynivka, severely restricting Ukrainian freedom of movement and making troop rotations, resupply efforts, and reinforcement operations increasingly difficult.
According to their assessment, a combination of Russian air superiority and what they describe as failures to accurately assess the tactical situation contributed to the city’s worsening position. They note that Russian assault groups often advance in small formations of two pairs of soldiers, a simple but effective tactic that reduces exposure while maintaining pressure along multiple axes.
Beyond the city itself, Russian forces are reportedly intensifying attacks on nearby settlements, particularly Osykove and Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka. Soldiers claim Russian troops are systematically targeting the outermost buildings first, gradually degrading defensive positions before pushing deeper into the settlements. The unit also highlights growing pressure on Ukrainian drone operators, with Russian forces increasingly targeting UAV crews and electronic warfare assets in an effort to disrupt reconnaissance, strike coordination, and battlefield awareness.
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Today in History
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This Day in History
TODAY IN HISTORY (June 24, 1812): French Emperor Napoleon—who had massed his troops in Poland in the spring to intimidate Russian Tsar Alexander I—and 600,000 troops of his Grand Army launched an ill-fated invasion of Russia.
