ISSUE #424📅07 Sept 2026⏱4 min read📑5 stories · 1 deep dive
01
The Briefing
◆
Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. Today’s edition begins in Germany, where the AfD has secured another historic state-election victory, while US envoys return from Moscow and Kyiv with warm words but no peace breakthrough.
Elsewhere, South Korea and the US are discussing a vast Texas energy project, Russia and North Korea have opened a new road between them, and investigators are examining a deadly Amazon cargo-plane crash in Miami.
Today’s conflict tracker takes us to Lyman where Ukraine has secured a major victory. But will it be enough to slow down the Russian offensive toward Sloviansk-Kramatortsk?
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 07 Sept 2026
02
The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
◆
01
Far-right party wins German state election for first time since WWII
Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany won 43.8% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, more than doubling its 2021 result and defeating Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats, who received 17.2%. The result marks the AfD’s second state-election victory after it topped the poll in Thuringia in 2024, rather than its first since the Second World War. The party fell short of a majority, however, and its path to forming Germany’s first far-right-led state government since the Nazi era remains uncertain because most rivals have ruled out cooperation.
02
US envoys leave Moscow and Kyiv without breakthrough on ending war
US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have completed visits to Moscow and Kyiv without securing a ceasefire or breakthrough in efforts to end the war. They held more than three hours of talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin before meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, with both sides describing the discussions positively but announcing no concrete agreement. The envoys said they were encouraged by new proposals and hoped to arrange further negotiations soon, while Kyiv emphasised its need for security guarantees, air defences and energy support ahead of winter.
03
South Korea, US agree on more than $20 billion gas plant investment in Texas
South Korea and the United States have reportedly discussed a US$22.3 billion investment in a proposed 6.3-gigawatt gas-fired power plant in Encinal, Texas, intended largely to supply electricity to AI data centres. The project could become the first major investment under Seoul’s US$350 billion US investment commitment, although it remains unclear how much funding South Korea would directly provide. South Korea’s Industry Ministry disputed reports that an agreement had been finalised, saying negotiations are continuing.
04
North Korea and Russia open their first road bridge, a symbol of expanding ties
Russia and North Korea have opened their first road bridge across the Tumen River, creating a direct vehicle link between the neighbouring countries. The approximately 850-metre crossing stands near the Friendship Bridge railway, which has operated since 1959, and is intended to expand trade, tourism and other cross-border cooperation. Construction began in 2025 after being agreed during Vladimir Putin’s 2024 visit to Pyongyang, as bilateral ties deepen through military cooperation and North Korea’s deployment of troops to support Russia’s war in Ukraine.
05
At least 5 dead, 5 injured after Amazon cargo plane crashes at Miami Airport
At least five people were killed and five others injured when an Amazon Prime Air cargo aircraft overran a runway while landing at Miami International Airport on Sunday. The Boeing 767-300 freighter, operated by 21 Air and arriving from San Juan, Puerto Rico, struck several vehicles and caught fire, with three of the injured reported in critical condition. The National Transportation Safety Board is investigating the cause, while Amazon and 21 Air said they are cooperating with authorities.
03
Daily Deep Dive
◆
Analysis · russia-ukraine war
Ukraine Secures Major Victory On The Lyman Sector
Ukraine has secured a major victory on the Lyman sector, but will it be enough to slow down the Russian offensive toward Sloviansk-Kramatortsk?
Basedment Analysis
Conflict Tracker
Ukraine-Russia Ukrainian forces have reportedly cleared the Russian salient north of Lyman, reversing territorial gains and weakening Moscow’s northern approach to the city. The immediate outcome represents a Ukrainian tactical success, although its wider operational significance remains contested.
According to AMK_Mapping, Russian formations withdrew from positions west of the Nitrius River towards the Zherebets. Ukrainian troops reportedly recaptured Shandryholove, Serednie, Zelena Dolyna, Derylove and Novomykhailivka, alongside surrounding woodland. AMK estimates approximately 152 square kilometres recovered, while analyst Random puts the gains above 90 square kilometres. These figures should be treated as separate estimates, rather than a confirmed total. AMK reports continued Ukrainian pressure towards the Zherebets, including around Terny and Kolodyazi, alongside infiltration near Zarichne. Earlier reporting described a gradual counteroffensive supported by intensive drone operations, targeting Russian positions and supply routes.The withdrawal reduces the immediate threat posed by this salient to Lyman’s northern flank. As far as most sources understand the Russian retreat was organised, suggesting the territorial defeat did not necessarily involve the destruction of the formations holding it. Lyman’s capture has therefore been delayed by many months unless Russian units can penetrate the central suburbs. A competing interpretation comes from military commentator Delwin, who argues that the bridgehead increasingly served to draw Ukrainian forces away from Russian advances towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. He suggests Russian command prioritised pressure around Mykolaivka over a northern envelope complicated by rivers and marshland. However, this does not establish that losing the salient was an intended outcome or that the alleged diversion succeeded. The distinction is between a demonstrated territorial setback and an inferred Russian operational design. Ukraine has reportedly removed a threatening position and gained defensive breathing room. Whether that success translates into lasting stabilisation will depend on its ability to consolidate the recovered ground while containing Russian pressure elsewhere along the approaches to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk over the coming months. Delwin
On this day in 1191 the Muslim army of Saladin attacked the Crusaders of Richard I at the Battle of Arsūf, and, though Richard successfully counterattacked in the evening, his march to Jerusalem was delayed.
