Trump Calls Iran "Scum" As Both Exchange Missile Fire

Third Gulf War

The big question on everyone's mind – is the June framework effectively collapsing? The Islamabad Memorandum, signed electronically on 17 June by Donald Trump at Versailles (masterstroke by Macron) and Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran, set a 60-day window to negotiate the harder questions around the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions and Iran's nuclear file. That window is now overtaken by direct fighting.

Three vessels transiting Hormuz were struck on 7 July, which CENTCOM identified as the Al Rekayyat, the Wedyan and the Cyprus Prosperity, and attributed to "unwarranted aggression by Iranian forces." Iran has neither confirmed nor denied the attacks. Washington then revoked the oil waiver, with sanctions set to snap back on 17 July, and launched what CENTCOM says were strikes on more than 80 targets, including air defences, coastal radar and anti-ship missiles, plus over 60 IRGC small boats. Explosions were reported in Sirik, Bandar Abbas, Qeshm and Kharg. Iranian state media claim most sites hit were civilian.

Trump had already called the deal "over" whilst also calling the Iranians “scum” and dealing with Tehran a waste of time. Iran's military promised a "crushing response," while Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi framed the US moves as breaches of Articles 1, 2 and 10. Both the U.S. and Iran stated they hit around 80 targets respectively. According to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), the strikes are intended to impose "heavy costs" on Iran following what Washington described as an "unwarranted" attack on civilian shipping and a clear violation of the ceasefire agreement. Strikes primarily focussed on previously hit communications, military and shipping infrastructure near the coast. While air raid sirens went off in Bahrain and Kuwait.

At the moment, I would say we’re still in this no-mans land of negotiation – where anything is really possible. We may be stuck in this loop of tit-for-tat for a while as Trump wants out for the midterms but Iran wants guarantees – all the while Israel doesn’t want either to happen. Again, this was easy to predict given the copies of the MOU that both parties were handed were worded completely differently. Is this a lack of professionalism from both parties, did either side just want time to rearm, genuine mistake? It’s hard to tell.