ISSUE #426📅09 Sept 2026⏱6 min read📑5 stories · 1 deep dive
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The Briefing
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Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. Today’s edition opens with US-Iran hostilities spilling across the Gulf and Jordan, while Washington and Ottawa turn dairy, alcohol and motorcycles into the latest front in their trade war.
Elsewhere, Israel is closing Britain’s East Jerusalem consulate, Russia has resumed deadly strikes on Kyiv after a diplomatic pause, and Serbia is heading to the polls early.
And finally, August was a slow month on paper, but Russian reconnaissance units have being making key advances on the most politically important sectors of this war.
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 09 Sept 2026
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The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
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US strikes 5 Iranian oil tankers; Tehran targets Jordan base, US warships
US forces destroyed five Iranian crude-oil tankers after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missiles at an American warship, with the tankers’ crews ordered to evacuate before the strikes. Iran responded by firing ballistic missiles at a US base near Al Azraq in Jordan and said it attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz, including two American vessels. Jordan and the United States reported no casualties from the missile barrage, while renewed fighting pushed oil prices close to US$100 a barrel.
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US bans Canadian dairy, alcohol and motorcycles as trade war escalates
The United States will ban imports of selected Canadian dairy products, most alcoholic beverages and motorcycles from 29 September as its trade dispute with Canada intensifies. The measure follows Ottawa’s introduction of retaliatory tariffs on approximately US$20 billion of American goods after bilateral trade negotiations collapsed. President Donald Trump also directed federal agencies to exclude Canadian products from long-term government contracts, while Prime Minister Mark Carney pledged to reduce Canada’s reliance on the US market.
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Israel closes UK consulate in East Jerusalem as 3 G7 countries ban settlement imports
Israel has ordered Britain’s consulate in East Jerusalem to close within 30 days after the UK, France and Canada announced bans on imports from Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank. The three G7 countries said the measures respond to settlement expansion and violence against Palestinians, which they argue are undermining prospects for a two-state solution. Israel also excluded Britain from a US-led Gaza coordination mission and halted its training of Palestinian Authority forces, while the UK’s embassy in Tel Aviv remains unaffected.
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Russia hits Kyiv after pause for US envoys’ visit, killing five
Russia launched a large missile-and-drone attack on Kyiv after a three-day pause during a visit by US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, killing at least five people and injuring 35. Strikes and falling debris sparked fires and damaged residential buildings, a school, a medical facility and a television station across the capital. The renewed bombardment followed the envoys’ meetings with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which both sides described positively but which produced no breakthrough towards ending the war.
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Serbia’s President Vucic dissolves parliament, calls snap elections
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has dissolved parliament and called a snap election for 25 October, more than a year before the vote was scheduled. The election follows nearly two years of student-led anti-corruption protests triggered by the 2024 collapse of a railway-station canopy in Novi Sad, which killed 16 people. Vučić said an early vote was necessary to ease political tensions and protect democracy, while his Serbian Progressive Party has nominated him to become prime minister if it wins.
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Daily Deep Dive
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Analysis · russia-ukraine war
The Three Most Important Russian Advances In August
August was a slow month on paper, but Russian reconnaissance units have being making key advances on the most politically important sectors of this war.
Basedment Analysis
Conflict Tracker
Russia-Ukraine August was a slow month for offensive operations in the eyes of some observers, but an important one for others. Russia gained roughly 11%–15% more territory than in July—an increase that may not appear particularly significant on paper. Yet the details suggest these gains are shaping conditions for further advances along several key fronts. We saw three major Russian DRG penetrations during August: in the Orikhiv, Dobropillya–Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk–Slovyansk sectors. These are major sectors where you would expect few gaps in the defensive lines, and their emergence raises important questions about Ukrainian manpower.
Dobropillya and Druzhivka
Russian infiltration saw increasing success in early August with strong pressure on Ukraine’s Dobropillya early on and toward the month, Druzhkivka sector. With reconnaissance and sabotage groups reportedly reaching Druzhkivka’s outskirts and entering Bilozerske. Small assault groups have penetrated north of the multilayered “New Donbas” defensive line, while further infiltrations threaten settlements, tactical heights and the Dobropillya–Kramatorsk highway. Near Dobropillya, Russian groups are entering from the east, southeast and south, although Ukrainian forces cleared the Dobropillya mine. Of four previously usable paved access roads, one is reportedly physically cut and Russian groups are operating along the remaining three. These developments threaten Ukrainian logistics as Dobropillya was a major supply hub for the central grouping of Ukrainian forces, but infiltration does not necessarily indicate consolidated Russian control. What happened here is hard to tell, sources suggest it was an organised retreat ordered by the Ukrainian MoD and it might have been. However, it seems the “organised” part of the retreat fell on deaf ears.
Sloviansk-Kramatorsk
Russian forces reportedly gained approximately 39.8 square kilometres over three weeks across the Slovyansk and Kramatorsk directions, increasing pressure on Ukraine’s defensive positions and urban approaches. A Russian reconnaissance and sabotage group was detected around 1.7 kilometres from Kramatorsk’s first houses, highlighting the risk of infiltration towards the city. Further northeast, Russian troops consolidated west of Kryva Luka and established a foothold in Pyskunivka. Capturing forests north of Rai-Oleksandrivka supported intensified infiltration into Mykolaivka from three directions, while assaults developed towards the canal pumping station. Russian forces also reportedly captured Yurkivka, expanded operations around Orikhuvatka and Zapovidne, and advanced towards Pershomarivka following the capture of Malynivka and Tykhonivka. The reported loss of dominant heights between Bakhmut and Kramatorsk weakens Ukraine’s defensive position and could facilitate further Russian advances. However, scattered infiltration groups do not establish continuous territorial control, and the pace of any breakthrough remains dependent on Ukrainian resistance and counterattacks.
Like I said in my podcast, if there was a front where you would really believe that infiltrations would happen – it is in this sector, yet here we are. Extremely concerning from the side of the Ukrainian defence that is actively being bypassed in multiple locations on the most politically important battlespace of this war.
Orikhiv
Russian advances on Orikhiv’s western flank are threatening Ukrainian supply routes, with reconnaissance and sabotage groups reportedly detected near Novoyakovlivka and inside southwestern Novopavlivka. Their presence puts pressure on the road from Yurkivka, described as one of Orikhiv’s last usable resupply routes. Heavy fighting continues around Novopavlivka as Russian troops attempt to seize nearby forests, approach from the south and west, and eliminate Ukrainian strongpoints. Ukrainian forces are counterattacking southwards towards the highway. Inside Orikhiv, Russian troops reportedly secured forests towards Mala Tokmachka, established a southeastern foothold and began pushing northwest, increasing pressure on both the city’s defences and its logistics.
However, this is a secondary sector for Russia – I do not expect too see major movement or interest here unless the Russian army can breakthrough the eastern flank of Orikhiv pushing from Huliaipole. At the current moment, these are largely reconnaissance units and their success will be dependent on Ukrainian defence. Much like we saw in Lyman, DRG does not mean consolidation.
Orikhiv Sector Source
I have largely used AMK_Mapping and Playfra (two analysts, with often conflicting views) for the most accurate picture.
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Tweet of the Day
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Tweet of the Day
Macklemore
@macklemore · Twitter / X
Wanting all humans to be treated equal should never be controversial.
Marxist revolutionary Mao Zedong, who died this day in 1976, emerged as the undisputed Chinese Communist Party leader following the Long March (1934–35) and dominated China in the period after the communist takeover in 1949.
