The Russian plan for the Donbas

The wider implications of this breach deserve a part two.

The New Donbas Line

Nicknamed by some as the Great Wall of Chi…Ukraine, this fortified belt has been hailed by analysts as a significant feat of military engineering. Ukrainian combat engineers have poured substantial effort into adapting defensive works to the realities of the modern battlefield. Trench systems dating back to as recently as 2023 are already considered obsolete.

We’ve gone into considerable detail about the New Donbas Line before, so we won’t drown you in specs. In short, this line was constructed by Ukrainian high command as a contingency in the event the Donbas front collapses.

It incorporates layered obstacles, extensive minefields, barbed wire entanglements, designated kill zones, anti-tank ditches, and continuous dragon’s teeth stretching for hundreds of kilometres. The trench systems have been redesigned with counter-FPV measures in mind: improved camouflage, overhead protection, non-linear layouts with sharp angles to disrupt enfilade fire, and a decentralised network of mutually supporting positions rather than single continuous lines.

By most Western and Ukrainian estimates, Russian forces were not expected to contact this line for at least another year. Yet, Russian diversionary-reconnaissance groups (DRG) have now pushed as far as Zolotyi Kolodiaz, a settlement located inside the New Donbas Line itself.

Grey zone: DRG unit operations, Red Russian advances (not this is from pro-Ukrainian mapping source) Map source: Playfra on X and Deepstate

Russia’s strategic objectives At the top of Russia’s operational objectives is the capture of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the last major urban strongholds in Ukrainian-held Donetsk Oblast. These cities represent both strategic depth and symbolic value. In terms of scale, they are far larger and more complex than previous objectives such as Bakhmut, Mariupol, or Avdiivka. Even smaller nodes on the defensive belt, like Siversk, have resisted for years despite not having the size or name.

Russian General Staff are acutely aware of the dangers posed by prolonged, high-intensity urban combat against entrenched Ukrainian formations. Instead of direct attrition inside the city limits, current indicators suggest their preferred course of action is to breach the New Donbas Line, establish a lodgement, and expand it into defensible salient. This would create a buffer zone to protect flanks and logistics while setting conditions for a larger operational envelopment of the Kramatorsk–Sloviansk defensive belt.

The aim would be to force Ukrainian withdrawals through positional encirclement rather than committing to prolonged block-by-block fighting. This aligns with Russia’s typical operational pattern — identifying and exploiting weak points on the flanks to stretch already depleted Ukrainian formations, then initiating a frontal push while conducting simultaneous flank attacks to collapse the position. But this would be on a far larger, strategic level that has not been done before. Such an encirclement would cut supply lines, much like how the supply lines from Dobropillya to Kramatorsk are already threatened, but now on a far larger scale.

Yes, the war’s overall tempo is slow, but the fact that Russian DRGs have reached a point this deep into the New Donbas Line within days, if not a year, ahead of most forecasts should raise eyebrows in both Kyiv and NATO planning circles. If this breach is exploited and widened, the timeline for serious pressure on Donetsk’s final Ukrainian strongholds could shift forward dramatically.

the dotted yellow lines are fortifications that create the “New Donbas Line” The white shaded areas are the major cities left within Donetsk under Ukrainian control.

Worrying Ukrainian trends While all eyes are on Pokrovsk, we should be looking at Kupiansk. The speed of the Russian advance here, with forces driving deep toward the city centre, is unusual compared to the war’s generally slow, attritional tempo. In this sense, Kupiansk might be a look into the future: an accelerating tempo of urban penetrations while Ukrainian defensive capacity is degraded. The concern is that what looks like a localised breakthrough today could be the template for multi-axis offensives tomorrow.

This rate of progress is unusual by the war’s standards and indicates both effective Russian assault coordination and severe Ukrainian manpower shortages. On some sectors, the situation has degraded to the point where drone operators are effectively holding defensive sectors (using FPV and reconnaissance drones to harass advancing troops) in positions that should be manned by infantry. The reliance on drones as a substitute for boots on the ground may buy time tactically, but it cannot provide the physical blocking force needed to halt determined urban assaults.

Outdated map but still highlights the significant advance

Sources: References available upon request. A full citation list has been omitted to preserve the visual integrity of the page.

Map sources: Playfra on X, AMK_Mapping on Telegram, Deep State, Suriyakmaps