The Mecca Pact Activates How Will Iran React?

Conflict Tracker

The Middle East Turkiye and Pakistan have agreed to rapidly deploy military forces and capabilities to Saudi Arabia, activating collective defence commitments under the Mecca pact following escalating Houthi attacks against the kingdom. The decision was announced after an emergency meeting in Riyadh on October 5. A joint statement said implementation would proceed immediately, subject to agreed arrangements and each country’s national laws. However, the announcement did not specify troop numbers, equipment, deployment dates or operational responsibilities.

Signed on August 7, the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement establishes that an armed attack against Saudi Arabia, Turkiye or Pakistan will be treated as an attack against all three. The latest decision moves that commitment towards practical military implementation. The Saudi-led coalition previously accused the Houthis of striking a power distribution station in Medina supplying the Prophet’s Mosque. Alliance members also condemned attacks targeting Saudi cities, religious sites and economic infrastructure.

Strategically, the deployment could strengthen Saudi defences while testing the alliance’s ability to coordinate a response. Of course, its significance will depend on the forces committed and their eventual missions. Yet as any good diplomat knows, never burn a bridge too soon – diplomacy remains active: Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the meeting also considered resolving the crisis through dialogue, leaving negotiations alongside military preparations as the conflict continues to intensify.

What will Iran do?

When the war first broke out, I asked on my first livestream what capabilities Iran would have to defend their proxy groups when they themselves fell under significant strain. We have once again reached that not-so-hypothetical. Three of the largest state actors involved in the MENA region are now preparing to deploy forces as the confrontation with one of Iran’s biggest allies intensifies. Yet, Iran is strapped for cash, and supplying that cash is becoming increasingly difficult. Supporting the Houthis is one thing; sustaining that support against a coordinated military response is another. Does Iran then risk an open conflict with a Gulf neighbour and two major regional powers? Or does it hold back and risk weakening the credibility of the wider proxy network it spent decades building? I would bet that the Mecca pact is hedging on this dilemma, potentially seeing any direct Iranian intervention as a casus belli against an old enemy they see as weakened after months of war with Israel and the U.S.

Geopolitics

Sources available upon request