The Geopolitical Tables Keep Turning All Major Fronts Deteriorating

Conflict Tracker

This is the year that just keeps on giving. The geopolitical stage is not offering us even a day of interlude, with every major front continuing to deteriorate. Personally, I cannot shake the feeling that there is something fishy about the events unfolding in Europe over the past few days. From the evolving story surrounding the drone at Leipzig Airport and leaked intelligence suggesting Russia may attempt a strike against NATO, to CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s unexpected visit to Moscow, the timing is difficult to ignore. I also cannot help but notice how quickly the media pivoted towards this story, with various sources now reporting that the United States faces a critical shortage of air-defence interceptors in Europe following the Iran war. The tables are turning. The chess pieces are moving.

Russia-Ukraine Air Campaign

The week opened with a massive combined Russian drone and missile strike on 20 August, continuing Moscow's pattern of stockpiling ballistic and cruise missiles for days to mass fires, while Russian drones penetrated Moldovan and Romanian airspace and a naval drone was destroyed near a Romanian gas platform. On 21 August neither side made confirmed advances; Ukraine struck Russian airfields and oil infrastructure, Russia launched 135 strike drones, and North Korean drone operators reportedly deployed to Kursk Oblast. By 24 August ISW assessed Ukraine is running a concerted SEAD/DEAD campaign against Russian air defences in border regions, with recent Ukrainian advances in the Slovyansk and Hulyaipole directions and western Zaporizhzhia; Russia fired two Onyx missiles, six Kh-31P/Kh-59s and 143 drones overnight. On 25 August, Russia escalated strikes on Ukrainian–Moldovan border infrastructure, launched a military satellite for its Rassvet constellation, and of course CIA Director Ratcliffe arrived in Moscow unannounced, which has been all the news.

Yemen

The Red Sea blockade campaign dominated the week. On Monday 24 August, the Houthis claimed a strike on the Saudi oil tanker Amzan off Yanbu, UKMTO reported a tanker hit by an unknown projectile 63 nautical miles west of the port, with Saudi officials yet to confirm. The strike fits Iran's strategy of squeezing global energy supply to pressure Washington, with the Houthis specifically working to choke Saudi exports via the Red Sea. On the ground, government forces continued the counteroffensive tempo set the prior week: Yemen's army spokesman claimed 133 operations against Houthi positions in 24 hours across front lines in Marib, al-Jawf, Taiz and Hodeidah. The UN envoy warns Yemen now faces a greater risk of large-scale conflict than at any point since the April 2022 truce, as the Saudi-led coalition strikes Hodeidah and Kamaran and reinforces troops for a possible ground offensive.

Sudan

The eastern front is now the story. On 27 August, the SAF repelled an RSF assault on Al-Keli in Blue Nile, following the RSF/SPLM-N offensive earlier this month that seized the border towns of Geissan and Kurmuk near Ethiopia. On 25 August, the Sudan Doctors Network reported 27 killed, including four children, in SPLM-N attacks in two areas of South Kordofan, driving displacement toward Kadugli. RSF cohesion kept fraying: Kordofan governor Hamad Khalifa and other senior figures have defected amid reports of Saudi financial inducements, with armed defectors filmed surrendering in western Omdurman on 19 August. SAF gains in North Kordofan are pressuring RSF supply lines while Burhan opens a political track (offering dialogue participants temporary immunity) though battlefield pressure hasn't yet become organisational breakdown. Meanwhile the RSF has shut markets and cut the internet in a West Kordofan city as the Sudanese pound hits a record low.