ISSUE #387📅Thursday, 16 July 2026⏱5 min read📑5 stories · 1 deep dive
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The Briefing
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Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. From the Gulf to the Pacific, today’s headlines highlight a world still navigating rising tensions, with the US and Iran trading fresh strikes, Ukraine reshuffling its wartime leadership, and a humanitarian tragedy unfolding as hundreds of Rohingya refugees are feared lost at sea.
Meanwhile, New Zealand and Fiji are strengthening their regional partnership as Pacific competition grows, while China and North Korea move to deepen their long-standing strategic ties.
And in today’s conflict tracker, we look at why the US blockade of Iran has quietly moved inside the Persian Gulf, and what the first tanker disabled since it resumed tells us about Washington's real strategy.
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 16 Jul 2026
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The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
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US hits Iranian oil tanker; Tehran attacks Kuwait, Jordan
The United States has expanded its military campaign against Iran, striking an Iranian oil tanker near Kharg Island and conducting additional attacks on military targets after reimposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports. In response, Iran launched missiles and drones targeting US-linked military facilities in Kuwait and Jordan, marking another escalation in the conflict after the collapse of recent ceasefire efforts.
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Zelenskyy endorses energy boss as new Ukrainian PM
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has endorsed Naftogaz CEO Sergii Koretskyi as the country's next prime minister following the resignation of Yulia Svyrydenko, with parliament expected to approve the appointment. Zelenskyy said Koretskyi's experience leading Ukraine's state energy company would be crucial as the government prepares for another winter of Russian attacks on critical energy infrastructure. The nomination is part of a broader cabinet reshuffle that is also expected to include changes to Ukraine's defence leadership as Kyiv seeks to strengthen its wartime administration.
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More than 500 feared dead after boats sink off Myanmar
More than 500 people are feared dead after two boats carrying Rohingya refugees reportedly capsized in the Bay of Bengal after departing Myanmar's Rakhine State in late June, according to the United Nations. The vessels were carrying around 530 people fleeing conflict, persecution and deteriorating humanitarian conditions, with many attempting the dangerous journey toward Malaysia despite the ongoing monsoon season. If confirmed, the disaster would rank among the deadliest maritime tragedies involving Rohingya refugees in recent years, prompting renewed calls from UN agencies for stronger regional search-and-rescue efforts and greater protection for those fleeing Myanmar.
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New Zealand, Fiji renew partnership for next 5 years
New Zealand and Fiji have renewed their Duavata Partnership for a further five years, establishing a framework for bilateral cooperation from 2026 to 2030 across trade, security, democracy, climate resilience and social development. The agreement was signed in Auckland by New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters and his Fijian counterpart Sakiasi Ditoka, reaffirming both countries' commitment to strengthening regional stability and collaboration in the Pacific. The renewed partnership comes as Pacific nations face growing strategic competition and shared challenges including climate change, economic resilience and maritime security.
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Senior Chinese and North Korean officials hold talks in Pyongyan
Senior Chinese Communist Party official Wang Huning met with North Korean Workers' Party Secretary Jo Yong Won in Pyongyang, where the two sides pledged to deepen political, economic, cultural and strategic cooperation. The talks focused on implementing agreements reached during Chinese President Xi Jinping's recent visit to North Korea, while reaffirming the countries' long-standing alliance ahead of the 65th anniversary of their friendship treaty. North Korea also reiterated its support for China's "One China" policy, underscoring the continued strengthening of ties between Beijing and Pyongyang amid shifting geopolitical dynamics in Northeast Asia.
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Daily Deep Dive
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Analysis · iran
The Blockade Has Moved Inside the Gulf
Today we look at why the US blockade of Iran has quietly moved inside the Persian Gulf, and what the first tanker disabled strategically tells us.
Basedment Analysis
The blockade has moved inside the Gulf
The most consequential thing to happen in the Iran war this week was not a missile wave but a single Hellfire fired into a smokestack. Early on Thursday, US Central Command confirmed that an American aircraft had disabled the Curacao-flagged tanker Belma, unladen and already US-sanctioned, after the vessel ignored repeated warnings and continued north toward Kharg Island. The missile went into the ship's funnel rather than its hull, which is a deliberate choice: it takes propulsion away without sinking the vessel or creating a spill that would hand Tehran an environmental atrocity to broadcast. It is the first ship disabled since the blockade was reimposed at 4pm Washington time on Tuesday, and Centcom's tally for the opening 24 hours sits at two compliant vessels redirected and one non-compliant vessel put out of action.
Why the geography matters
The location is what should catch your attention rather than the tonnage. This strike happened deep inside the Persian Gulf, close to Iran's principal export terminal, and a long way from the Strait of Hormuz where the first blockade was enforced along a line out in the Gulf of Oman. Jennifer Parker of the UWA Defence and Security Institute frames it as new in implementation while remaining consistent with Washington's declared intent of blockading all Iranian ports and coastal areas, and I would read it the same way. The declaratory policy has not changed, but the enforcement envelope has expanded from interception at a distant chokepoint to interdiction on Tehran's own doorstep. Kharg is not a symbolic target either, with United Against Nuclear Iran counting at least eleven oil and petrochemical liftings from the island since the mid-June interim deal and a supertanker observed loading crude there on Wednesday.
The blockade is a substitute, not a strategy
Here is the uncomfortable part for Washington. The stated purpose of the campaign is to reopen Hormuz, and the strikes on Greater Tunb, Hengam, Bandar Abbas and Ahvaz are all framed as degrading Iran's capacity to threaten shipping. Yet the consensus among analysts is that forcing the strait open would demand a far larger armada, and quite possibly tens of thousands of ground troops, which is not an operation the administration appears willing to mount. Strangling Iranian exports is what you do when you cannot achieve the objective you have publicly set, and the previous blockade's numbers, 142 ships redirected and nine disabled across two months, describe pressure rather than resolution.
Escalation without an off-ramp
Tehran's language has hardened accordingly, with Qalibaf declaring an existential war and the military calling the strait an unbreakable red line, while Baghaei has ruled out negotiations entirely. Iranian officials now put the toll from American strikes above 35 killed and 300 wounded, and Wednesday's attack on a 388th Mechanized Infantry Brigade barracks in Sistan and Baluchestan reportedly killed seven. Brent traded above $85 on Thursday, roughly fifteen percent above its pre-war level but well short of the $120 peak, which tells you the market has priced attrition rather than catastrophe. That judgement holds only while both sides keep hitting hardware instead of each other's people in numbers. Sources Available upon request
TODAY IN HISTORY (July 16, 1979): Saddam Hussein became president of Iraq, and his brutal rule, which lasted 24 years, was marked by costly and unsuccessful wars with neighboring countries as well as atrocities against the Iraqi people.
