The Big China - U.S. Talks: What To Expect

CONFLICT TRACKER

China Summit Donald Trump arrived in Beijing this week for his first visit to China since 2017, sitting down with President Xi Jinping for two days of talks that carry significant weight for both leaders, though analysts are tempering expectations of any sweeping breakthrough.

The summit was originally scheduled for March but was pushed back after the United States became embroiled in war with Iran, a conflict that has rattled global energy markets and given Beijing a degree of quiet leverage heading into the meetings. China is Iran's largest trade partner and top buyer of its oil, meaning Washington needs Beijing's cooperation to bring any resolution to the conflict closer. In my opinion, if you want to know what will be discussed simply take a look at the seating arrangement. Elon Musk, Tim Cook and Larry Fink are among the business executives accompanying the president, alongside Boeing and Mastercard CEOs, signalling the commercial stakes attached to the relationship. So trade will likely be the headline item. Experts anticipate both sides will look to formalise agreements, potentially including Chinese purchases of American agricultural products and Boeing aircraft, building on the truce the two leaders struck at a sideline meeting in Busan, South Korea, last October. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has signalled the administration is seeking stability rather than a reset, which broadly sums up the tone of the summit.

Taiwan and artificial intelligence are also on the table, with Beijing expected to press Washington on arms sales to Taipei. Trump said before departing that he intended to raise the issue directly with Xi, a move analysts say will be closely watched for any shift in U.S. posture. The Council on Foreign Relations described the summit as an effort to stabilise ties rather than resolve the fundamental tensions between the two powers, a characterisation that likely suits both sides heading in.

The Iran Question

The Iran war sits awkwardly at the centre of this summit, shaping the dynamic between Washington and Beijing without either side holding all the cards. Trump is expected to press Xi to use China's considerable influence over Tehran to bring Iran back to the negotiating table. China has so far kept its distance from the conflict directly, but hosted Iran's foreign minister in Beijing just days before Trump's arrival, a signal of its continued diplomatic engagement with both sides. Beijing's leverage is real. China absorbs roughly half of Iran's oil exports, and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz has damaged Chinese shipping and crude imports significantly, giving Xi his own reasons to want the conflict wound down. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed ahead of the summit that China provided assurances it would not transfer weapons to Iran, which the administration credited to the personal relationship between the two leaders. This is where the big question regarding Netanyahu’s statement on China assisting Iran – they have not directly supplied weapons but have supplied the materials for missiles, radar systems and Chinese satellite imagery. That assurance was considered a prerequisite for the meeting going ahead at all according to Hegseth. SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT COMING SOON…. THE BASEDMENT COMMUNITY IS ENTERING A NEW AGE More analysis. More Information. More Updates.