Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. From Washington to Manila, today’s headlines are dominated by diplomacy, defence and trade, with Trump meeting Lebanon’s president, the Pentagon defending the rising cost of the Iran war, and protests erupting during Marco Rubio’s visit to the Philippines.
Meanwhile, South Korea looks to strengthen ties across technology and trade during a major diplomatic tour, while the US and Mexico return to the negotiating table to reshape the future of North American commerce.
Today we provide context on the new commander-in-chief Drapatyi, his history, his successes and what he could bring to the Ukrainian military.
Donald Trump met Lebanese President Joseph Aoun at the White House, pledging continued American support for Lebanon while stopping short of providing a timeline for a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Aoun urged Washington to help secure Israel's complete withdrawal and reaffirmed Lebanon's commitment to extending state authority across the country under the U.S.-brokered framework agreement. The meeting came as Israeli forces began their first phased pullback from parts of southern Lebanon, with Lebanese troops deploying to newly established "pilot zones" as part of the agreement's implementation.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers that the war with Iran has cost the United States US$37.5 billion so far as he defended the Trump administration's request for billions of dollars in additional military funding. Speaking before the Senate Appropriations Committee, Hegseth said the estimate includes operational costs, military pay and projected expenses through the end of the fiscal year, warning the Pentagon could face funding shortfalls without congressional approval. The request drew sharp criticism from Democratic lawmakers, who questioned the administration's war strategy and warned the conflict risked becoming another prolonged military engagement.
Anti-U.S. protesters clashed with police in Manila during a visit by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with demonstrators opposing American military cooperation with the Philippines and Washington's role in regional conflicts. Police used shields and batons to disperse protesters who attempted to move toward the venue of Rubio's meetings, while several activists and at least two journalists were briefly detained before being released. Rubio's visit comes amid deepening U.S.-Philippine security ties and regional tensions in the South China Sea, where Manila and Beijing have faced a series of recent confrontations.
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will visit San Francisco, Brazil, Chile, Argentina and Germany from 24 July to 3 August as part of a diplomatic tour focused on artificial intelligence, trade and strategic partnerships. In San Francisco, Lee will attend an AI summit, meet executives including Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, and hold talks with leading venture capital firms to strengthen technology cooperation. The South American leg of the trip will include bilateral summits with the leaders of Brazil, Chile and Argentina, where Seoul hopes to advance trade negotiations, expand energy cooperation and deepen access to critical minerals.
U.S. and Mexican officials have resumed formal negotiations to revise the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), while Canada remains excluded from the latest round of talks following President Donald Trump's decision to impose new 50% tariffs on nearly US$20 billion of Canadian imports. The negotiations are focused on reducing U.S. trade deficits, increasing North American manufacturing and tightening rules to limit Chinese goods entering the region through Mexico. Mexican officials said they remain optimistic that a revised agreement can be reached by the end of the year, while Canada's absence has underscored growing divisions over the future of North America's trade framework.
Russia-Ukraine Summary Mykhailo Drapatyi, born in Kamianets-Podilskyi in 1982, graduated from the Kharkiv Institute of Tank Forces in 2004 and began as a lieutenant in the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade. He became a national figure in May 2014, when as a major he rode inside the armoured vehicle that rammed a separatist barricade in Mariupol, and that August he led roughly 260 men out of the Izvaryne encirclement. In 2022 he halted the Russian advance on Kryvyi Rih, then commanded the Kherson grouping through the liberation of the right bank. Sent to Kharkiv in May 2024, he contained the cross-border offensive around Vovchansk and Lyptsi, and took the Ground Forces that November. He resigned in June 2025 after an Iskander strike killed twelve soldiers at a training ground, accepting personal responsibility rather than pushing it downward, and afterwards led the Khortytsia grouping and the Joint Forces.
An analyst that I recommend following, Rob Lee, regards the appointment favourably. Drapatyi has commanded across most of the front over the past two years, which gives him a current picture of how the fighting actually works, and his Ground Forces tenure added recent exposure to mobilisation and training. Brigade commanders who served under him describe an officer who solicited their views and asked what support they needed rather than simply issuing orders, which cuts against the persistent complaint that the General Staff directs the war with poor situational awareness. He helped establish the Drone Line initiative alongside Fedorov, has argued for deep strike capability, and wrote publicly about the atmosphere of fear and imperviousness to feedback he inherited.
Lee expects him to devolve authority to corps and task force commanders and to promote younger officers, though cultural reform is slow. Mobilisation remains the most pressing problem, compounded over four years, and it requires an all-of-government response rather than resting on Drapatyi and acting defence minister Khmara alone.
This is a major bonus for the Ukrainian military in what can be described as the most crucial year of this conflict yet. The Russians are nearing their final major objectives of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk while Ukraine continues to deal with mobilisation problems. Syrskyi represented the old Soviet-era military elite who believed machines could not replace men, which is true enough, but the tunnel vision that came with ego and pride has significantly hurt the Ukrainian military. Under Syrskyi, the culture within the military was ferociously top-down, similar in many aspects to the Russian side. That has led to poor morale, uneven support and rising numbers of soldiers going AWOL, all of which reduced the effectiveness and cohesion of what the Ukrainian military could be. The other group is the more forward thinking, such as Fedorov and Brovdi, who have placed greater emphasis on finding alternatives to ease the manpower shortage. Drapatyi can act as the linkage between the traditional school, the reformers and the frontline troops. He understands the plight of the soldiers, he understands that reform is needed, and he understands how the inner political and military intrigue works. That combination is rarer than it sounds, because the officers who grasp the technological argument often lack the institutional standing to impose it, while those with the standing have generally been the ones resisting. Whether he can convert that position into actual change is the open question, and the answer will be measured in whether corps commanders start receiving the support they have spent four years asking for.
TODAY IN HISTORY (July 22, 1977): Deng Xiaoping reinstated
After falling from favour during the Cultural Revolution (1966–76), Deng Xiaoping returned to power on this day in 1977 after the Chinese Communist Party reinstated all his former high posts, including that of vice-premier.

The Sudanese Armed Forces have cracked open RSF defensive positions and opened the key Khartoum-El Obeid road.
Tonight we zoom in to provide an analysis and summary of the last few days in Manilla, as Ukraine and Russia largely took the spotlight.
Reports are coming out that Russian forces have been encircled north of Lyman - the question is, is that true?