ISSUE #394📅Monday, 27 July 2026⏱6 min read📑5 stories · 1 deep dive
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The Briefing
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Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. A rare moment of calm arrives in the Middle East as the US and Iran pause strikes for a second day, while diplomacy takes centre stage amid lingering questions over whether the fragile truce can hold.
Elsewhere, Europe faces fresh security challenges after a deadly attack in Berlin, Ukraine continues strengthening ties with the UK, and violence in the West Bank fuels further regional tensions.
And in today’s conflict tracker, the Sudanese Armed Forces have cracked open RSF defensive positions and opened the key Khartoum-El Obeid road.
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 27 Jul 2026
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The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
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US and Iran hit pause on strikes for second day
The United States and Iran refrained from launching new military strikes for a second consecutive day, marking the first sustained pause after nearly two weeks of escalating conflict. Iranian officials said Tehran would continue to hold fire as long as the U.S. maintained its pause, while Washington said President Donald Trump was allowing space for diplomatic efforts but remained prepared to resume military action if necessary. Despite the temporary lull, both sides have warned the conflict could quickly reignite, with negotiations continuing over Iran's nuclear program and the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
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Police shoot dead Berlin Pride van and knife rampage suspect
German police have shot dead the suspect accused of carrying out the deadly attack at Berlin's Pride festival, after he allegedly confronted officers with a knife during an attempted arrest in the Spandau district. Authorities say the attacker drove a van into a crowd before launching a knife rampage, killing one person and injuring 29 others, with investigators saying there are strong indications the attack was motivated by Islamist extremism. The incident has prompted Germany to review security measures for major public events, particularly upcoming Pride celebrations, amid concerns about the risk of copycat attacks.
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Burnham to host Zelensky in first foreign leader visit
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham will host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday, marking the first visit by a foreign leader since Burnham took office. The two leaders are expected to meet at a UK naval base, where they will discuss continued military support for Ukraine, including joint defence projects and the training of Ukrainian forces under British-led programmes. The visit is intended to reinforce the UK's commitment to Ukraine as Russia's invasion continues, with Burnham describing British support as "unwavering."
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Israeli settlers set fire to mosques, cars and farm land in West Bank
Israeli settlers set fire to at least two mosques, torched vehicles and farmland, and spray-painted anti-Palestinian graffiti during overnight attacks on several villages in the occupied West Bank. The violence followed a deadly clash near the village of Tell in which four Palestinians and two Israeli soldiers were killed, prompting Israeli authorities to launch a large-scale security operation across the territory. The Israeli military condemned the attacks on religious sites and said investigations were underway, while Palestinian officials accused Israel of failing to curb escalating settler violence.
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Syria President tells Al Jazeera his country seeks security deal with Israel
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa said Damascus is seeking a security agreement with Israel, describing it as a potential step toward a broader peace while insisting Syria will not relinquish its claim to the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. In an interview with Al Jazeera, Sharaa said several countries are involved in facilitating the talks and stressed that Syria's priority is stability and diplomacy rather than renewed conflict. His comments come amid ongoing Israeli military operations in southern Syria following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's government, with negotiations seen as part of wider efforts to reduce regional tensions.
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Daily Deep Dive
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Analysis · sudan
Sudanese Army Reopens Key Vital Supply Link
The Sudanese Armed Forces have cracked open RSF defensive positions and opened the key Khartoum-El Obeid road.
Basedment Analysis
Sudanese Civil War
The Summary The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have achieved what is arguably their most significant battlefield victory since the recapture of Khartoum earlier this year, successfully reopening the strategic highway linking the capital with El Obeid after more than three years of disruption.
The breakthrough came as SAF forces advancing south from Khartoum linked up with elements of the 5th Infantry Division, which pushed east from El Obeid. The junction restores a vital logistical corridor that had remained under varying degrees of Rapid Support Forces (RSF) control since the outbreak of the civil war in April 2023.
The route is strategically important for both military and economic reasons. It connects Khartoum to central and western Sudan while serving as a major export corridor for agricultural products, livestock and other natural resources. Its closure isolated government-held territory in Kordofan, complicated military resupply and restricted the movement of civilians and commercial goods.
El Obeid has been one of the war's defining battlegrounds. Home to one of the Sudanese Army's largest formations, the city endured an encirclement lasting almost two years but never fell despite repeated RSF offensives. Following the partial lifting of the siege from the east, the SAF launched several unsuccessful attempts to reopen the Khartoum highway, with fierce fighting repeatedly changing control around Barah, the key town along the route.
Attention later shifted south as government forces fought to reopen the road towards Dilling, where isolated SAF brigades had been trapped. Those operations gradually improved the army's position before the latest offensive finally achieved a full breakthrough towards Khartoum.
The victory represents another major setback for the RSF, which has received extensive backing from the United Arab Emirates, according to repeated allegations by the Sudanese government, UN experts and multiple international investigations. While fighting continues across Darfur and other parts of western Sudan, reopening the Khartoum–El Obeid highway strengthens the SAF's operational freedom, improves logistics and further consolidates government control over central Sudan.
My Analysis
Since the fall of El Fasher and the recapture of Khartoum, both sides have settled into a largely positional phase of the war as they prepare for what is likely to become the decisive battle for North Kordofan, whose capital is El Obeid. The RSF has consolidated control over large areas around El Fasher, the site of the massacre that shocked the world. Meanwhile, the SAF has secured Khartoum and strengthened its hold over much of northern and eastern Sudan.
Both sides are now attempting to gain any possible advantage before launching larger offensives. For the RSF, this has meant opening a new axis of operations near the Ethiopian border in an apparent effort to divert and stretch SAF forces. The offensive achieved some initial tactical success, catching local SAF units by surprise. However, in recent days the SAF has responded with several successful localised counterattacks. More importantly, government forces have now reopened the vital highway linking Khartoum and El Obeid, marking one of their most significant operational successes in more than a year.
Looking at the events of 2026, it is worth asking which side currently holds the strategic momentum. Backed by the UAE, the RSF has reportedly used Ethiopian territory to train and stage forces for operations in the Upper Nile region. The objective appears to have been the creation of a third front behind the SAF's main defensive lines, forcing the army to disperse its resources.
That strategy depends on achieving rapid success while preventing major SAF advances elsewhere. So far, however, the Upper Nile operation has yet to produce a decisive breakthrough. Instead, the SAF has punched through one of the war's most strategically important frontlines by restoring the Khartoum–El Obeid corridor. This raises an important question: has the RSF committed too much manpower to secondary operations while leaving the front that matters most under-resourced? Sources Available upon request
TODAY IN HISTORY (July 27, 1830): The July Revolution began in France, leading to the abdication of Charles X and bringing Louis-Philippe to the throne.
