ISSUE #368📅Thursday, 18 June 2026⏱5 min read📑5 stories · 1 deep dive
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The Briefing
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Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire remains in focus today, with fresh talks scheduled in Switzerland even as Trump warns military action could resume if the agreement breaks down.
Elsewhere, Ukraine struck a key Moscow oil refinery for the second time in a week as Western allies prepare another defence package for Kyiv, while discussions on both conflicts featured heavily during Trump and Macron’s meeting at Versailles. Together, the stories highlight the mix of diplomacy and military pressure shaping some of the world's most important geopolitical flashpoints.
In today’s Conflict Tracker, the formal end of hostilities has begun with the digital signing of the memorandum by both sides, as Russia advances around Kupiansk.
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 18 Jun 2026
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The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
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Ceasefire signed but Trump says he could resume attacks
The United States and Iran have signed an interim ceasefire agreement aimed at ending months of conflict, with both sides committing to halt military operations and begin negotiations on a longer-term settlement. Despite the agreement, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that military action could resume if Iran fails to comply with the deal’s terms, stating that Washington would respond forcefully to any violations. The framework includes provisions covering sanctions relief, regional security issues and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while negotiators work toward a more comprehensive agreement over the coming weeks.
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Ukraine strikes key Moscow oil refinery for the second time in a week
Ukraine has struck a major oil refinery in Moscow for the second time in less than a week, as Kyiv continues its campaign targeting Russian energy infrastructure used to support the war effort. Russian authorities confirmed that drones hit the refinery in the Kapotnya district, sparking a fire and causing operational disruptions, while air defence systems reportedly intercepted dozens of other drones aimed at the capital. The latest attack comes amid intensifying long-range strikes by both sides and growing concerns over the impact of repeated attacks on Russia’s fuel supplies and refining capacity.
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France’s Macron hosts Trump at Versailles Palace
French President Emmanuel Macron hosted Trump at the Palace of Versailles following the G7 summit in France, in a meeting aimed at reinforcing ties between the two allies amid a series of major international crises. The two leaders discussed issues including the war in Ukraine, the recently announced U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework, trade relations and broader transatlantic cooperation. The high-profile visit, which included a formal dinner at the historic palace, underscored France’s use of diplomacy and symbolism as Macron seeks to maintain close engagement with Washington on key global challenges.
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Sweden, Norway and Canada to announce $100m Ukraine defence package
Sweden, Norway and Canada are set to announce a new defence assistance package worth approximately $100 million for Ukraine, aimed at strengthening Kyiv’s ability to defend against ongoing Russian attacks. The package will be delivered through the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) initiative, which provides Ukraine with U.S.-made military equipment identified as among its most urgent defence needs. The announcement is expected to be made during a meeting of Ukraine’s international partners in Brussels, as Western allies continue efforts to bolster Ukraine’s military capabilities and maintain pressure on Russia.
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Switzerland says US-Iran talks planned for Friday
Switzerland has confirmed that a new round of talks between the United States and Iran is scheduled to take place on Friday at the Bürgenstock resort, as both sides seek to build on a recently agreed ceasefire framework. The discussions are expected to focus on implementing the terms of a preliminary memorandum of understanding, including regional security arrangements, sanctions relief, maritime navigation in the Gulf, and Iran’s nuclear program. Swiss officials said the country is acting as a facilitator for the talks, which are being supported by mediators from Pakistan and Qatar as efforts continue toward a broader long-term agreement.
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Daily Deep Dive
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Analysis · russia-ukraine war
Memorandum Signed In Versailles, Russia Advances North
The formal end of hostilities has begun with the digital signing of the memorandum by both sides, as Russia advances around Kupiansk.
Basedment Analysis
Conflict Tracker
Third Gulf War
On 14 June 2026, the United States and Iran digitally signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the 2026 Iran war, with Vice President JD Vance announcing the signing the following day. The document, formally titled the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, is a 14-point framework that addresses the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, eases certain financial restrictions on Iran, and sets out expectations for addressing Iran's nuclear program during future technical talks.
The deal was primarily brokered by Pakistan, with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey also facilitating negotiations. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was first to publicly confirm the agreement, while the document was reportedly signed digitally by Iranian Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, along with US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, with a formal in-person signing ceremony scheduled in Switzerland on 19 June. Anyone else find it amusing Trump signed this whilst at Versailles?
The agreement provides for an end to military strikes, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping while Iran retains control and charges fees for usage, an end to the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, and a 60-day extension of the ceasefire. The document does not address Iran's nuclear stockpile, its ballistic missile program, or its network of regional proxies, with those issues deferred to follow-on technical talks… We discussed this yesterday, this is all honeymoon feelings until something concrete is signed about the nuclear deal.
The two sides have already described the terms differently. Iranian officials assert that the US pledges immediate sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets during the 60-day negotiation window, while the US position on that timeline remains disputed. Israel, which was not party to the negotiations, has expressed strong disapproval and stated that military operations in Lebanon will continue regardless of the memorandum's wording. Read The Memorandum Here
Russia-Ukraine War
Journalist & military observer Bohdan Myroshnykov reports: The situation along the Kupiansk axis is reportedly continuing to deteriorate, with Ukrainian military observer Bohdan Myroshnykov describing conditions as particularly severe, especially on the eastern (left) bank of the Oskil River. Russian forces are said to be conducting persistent infiltration operations into Kivsharivka, a strategically important settlement that plays a key role in maintaining Ukraine's bridgehead east of the river.
Further south, the areas around Petropavlivka and Pishchane are reportedly facing significant pressure. According to the report, logistical support has become increasingly difficult due to Russian electronic warfare capabilities, which are disrupting efforts to resupply frontline positions using drones.
On the western bank of the Oskil, conditions are described as somewhat more manageable, with unmanned ground vehicles occasionally able to reach forward positions. Fighting remains active around Holubivka and near Kindrashivka, while clashes continue across much of the wider Kupiansk sector. Myroshnykov argues that despite its strategic importance, the front has received relatively little public attention compared to other areas of the war.
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Today in History
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This Day in History
TODAY IN HISTORY (June 18, 1812): War of 1812 begun
On this day U.S. President James Madison signed a declaration of war against Great Britain, initiating the War of 1812, which arose chiefly from U.S. grievances over oppressive maritime practices during the Napoleonic Wars.
