Memorandum Released: Just As Many Questions As Answers

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ISSUE #367Wednesday, 17 June 20265 min read5 stories · 1 deep dive

The Briefing

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Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. From global diplomacy tables to tense maritime encounters, today’s headlines span everything from coordinated G7 pressure on Russia over Ukraine to renewed friction playing out between Russian and British forces in the Channel.

In the Middle East, political leaders continue to debate the future of Lebanon as Washington pushes competing ideas on how to contain regional conflict, while Central Asia leans into economic reform with Uzbekistan unveiling ambitious plans to attract foreign investment. Meanwhile, debates over national identity in Australia add a domestic political edge to a day otherwise defined by international tension and shifting alliances.

In today’s Conflict Tracker we give our opinions on the fourteen memorandum points.

— The Basedment Editorial Team· 17 Jun 2026

The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics

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G7 leaders agree to pressure Russia to end war with Ukraine

Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations agreed to increase pressure on Russia to end its war against Ukraine during summit talks in Évian-les-Bains, France. The leaders reaffirmed their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, while discussing additional sanctions targeting Russia’s oil and gas sectors and further military assistance for Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who attended the summit, welcomed the discussions and said there was broad agreement among G7 members on the need to strengthen pressure on Moscow and advance efforts toward a negotiated peace.

Trump criticises Israel, leans on Sharaa to help in Lebanon

Donald Trump criticized Israel’s ongoing military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, arguing that the conflict has dragged on too long and is causing excessive civilian casualties. Speaking on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France, Trump suggested that Syria’s government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa could play a greater role in countering Hezbollah, saying Damascus may be better positioned to address the group while supporting broader regional de-escalation efforts. The comments come as Washington continues to push for a durable ceasefire framework involving Israel, Lebanon and Iran, with negotiations over a wider regional settlement still underway.

Uzbek President pledges continued reforms, tax-free zone at Tashkent forum

Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev used the Tashkent International Investment Forum to reaffirm his commitment to economic liberalisation and continued market reforms aimed at attracting foreign investment. Speaking to international business leaders, Mirziyoyev announced plans to establish the Tashkent International Financial Center, a tax- and customs-free zone operating under English common law with zero rates on key taxes and guarantees for free capital movement. The initiative forms part of Uzbekistan’s broader strategy to position itself as a regional financial and investment hub, building on strong economic growth and a series of reforms introduced since 2016.

Australian right-wing leader Pauline Hanson says multiculturalism has failed

Australian right-wing politician Pauline Hanson has declared that multiculturalism has failed, using a speech at the National Press Club in Canberra to call for lower immigration levels and what she described as a more unified national culture. Hanson argued that high migration has contributed to pressures on housing, infrastructure and social cohesion, while advocating for stricter immigration policies and greater emphasis on what she called shared Australian values. Her remarks have drawn criticism from political opponents and community groups, while highlighting immigration and national identity as key issues in Australia’s political debate ahead of future elections.

Russian frigate fires warning shots at British yacht in Channel

A Russian Navy frigate fired warning shots near a British-flagged yacht in the English Channel after the civilian vessel reportedly approached too closely to the warship, according to Russian and British officials. The incident involved the Russian frigate Admiral Grigorovich and occurred approximately 20 nautical miles south of the Isle of Wight, with no injuries or damage reported and a Royal Navy vessel monitoring the situation throughout. British authorities described the episode as an isolated maritime incident and have launched an investigation, while Prime Minister Keir Starmer called the actions of the Russian warship “reckless and deeply concerning.”

Daily Deep Dive

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Analysis · middle east

Memorandum Released: Just As Many Questions As Answers

There are as many questions as there are answers in the released memorandum.

Basedment Analysis

Conflict Tracker

Third Gulf War

The memorandum has been released by Bloomberg and there is a lot to unpack here.

In point one, there is a clear intention to mention Lebanon as part of the cessation of hostilities. This will be the major friction area, given that Israeli officials tied to Netanyahu's coalition are insisting that America has one foreign policy and they have another. There has been a very careful balancing act between not attacking the U.S. and asserting this is the wrong deal to make, among Israeli pro-war hardliners. By mentioning Lebanon by name, the memorandum is pointing the finger at Israel and saying "no fighting."

"To refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs" — I found this one amusing, as we all know there will definitely be meddling. This reads more as a formal declaration than anything of substance. Point three is similar, a formal statement for a formal occasion.

There is another point that suggests Iran had more leverage in these negotiations than is being acknowledged, for two reasons. As much as Iran was hurting the world with its blockade, the U.S. blockade was hurting Iran just as much. Others could look elsewhere, but Iran was isolated. The removal of sanctions will be an immediate boost to its economy and, more importantly, will ease the pressure on its oil infrastructure. The removal of forces from surrounding areas is an open statement, and I would be reading this in the naval space rather than on land, as the U.S. has many bases in the region that it will definitely not be leaving.

This will be an interesting one, as the key question is how much of an understanding Iran has regarding where its naval mines are and how to defuse them. There was already at least one instance of a mine drifting into Qatari waters. Are there more out there? There is also the question of just how much of a blockade there really were with reports of a secret deal with the Qatari’s being given passage in return for billions of secret payments.

The second half of the points are the most structurally important to any lasting peace. A lot is being said in this memorandum about big changes: the unfreezing of funds, the removal of sanctions, billions in cash transfers. But the only fundamental pin holding this entire memorandum together is the phrase "that a final agreement be signed," which itself hinges on reaching a nuclear deal. We have to stop and ask how optimistic we really are that such a deal will be reached, given the numerous competing forces at play: hardliners in the IRGC, neocons and conservatives in Washington, AIPAC, Israel, and Trump himself. Read The Memorandum Here