Major Offensive Against Ethiopia, New Phase of Iran War Kupiansk Front

Iran-USA-Israel

Over the past 24 hours, the Iran conflict has continued to escalate across multiple domains, with both sides adapting rather than slowing down.

On the military front, U.S. and Israeli strikes have focused on degrading Iran’s launch capability rather than eliminating it entirely. Around 77% of known tunnel access points to underground missile facilities have reportedly been hit, targeting tempo and coordination. However, the core infrastructure remains intact, meaning Iran retains the ability to sustain operations over time .

Iran has responded with continued missile activity, including a significant strike toward the Dimona area, with at least one impact causing casualties. Iranian officials are now openly claiming “missile dominance,” indicating confidence in their ability to continue or even intensify strikes. It seems Iran has moved to targeting smaller cities, noting that interceptors have been sent to major cities due to possible shortages.

Regionally, tensions are widening. Saudi Arabia has expelled Iranian diplomats, while Iraq has halted production at key energy fields. Maritime threats remain active, with Iran signalling it can selectively control access through the Strait of Hormuz while still exporting oil from Kharg Island.

Ethiopia-FANO

FANO militants have launched a major offensive in the South Gondar Zone of the Amhara region in Ethiopia, targeting government forces. Regional sources claim up to 650 government soldiers have been killed, with 418 captured on March 18 alone. The operation was reportedly launched in memory of Major General Wubante Abate, a key Fano leader killed in 2024.

Multiple local administrations have since collapsed following coordinated assaults between March 18–19. Heavy fighting across Dera, Farta, Guna-Begemidir, and Lay-Gayint resulted in the deaths of senior officials and dozens of militia personnel. In Nefas-Mewcha, Fano briefly seized the town, capturing officials and vehicles before withdrawing. Regime reinforcements have since moved in, while large-scale deployments and shelling continue to stabilize deteriorating positions. Fano (Amhara militias) Fano is a loose network of Amhara ethnic militias, not a single unified command. They are primarily aligned with Amhara nationalist interests and operate independently of the federal government. Their goal is to defend Amhara regions and push back against what they see as marginalisation by Addis Ababa. While they were previously aligned with the federal government during the Tigray War, they are now actively fighting against it.