Kostyantynivka Continues To Deteriorate For Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine

The situation in and around Kostyantynivka continues to deteriorate, with Russian forces maintaining pressure across multiple axes while steadily expanding their presence inside the urban area. Current battlefield indicators suggest that Russian command has designated this sector as a priority effort, committing substantial manpower and resources despite heavy casualties.

Information and map source: Suriyak via Telegram

To the northeast, fighting around Chasiv Yar continues to place additional strain on Ukrainian defensive positions and supply routes supporting the wider Kostyantynivka defensive grouping. Russian advances beyond Molocharka toward the chemical plant area have increased pressure on Ukrainian logistics and threaten further disruption of movement between key defensive sectors.

Within Kostyantynivka itself, Russian forces have continued to make incremental gains. Russian troops are reported to have consolidated control over portions of the eastern and central urban districts, while intense fighting continues across several western neighbourhoods. Urban combat remains highly fragmented, with isolated Ukrainian pockets still holding defensive positions in residential areas, industrial zones, high-rise buildings, and dacha settlements. The Novoselivka district has emerged as one of the primary battlegrounds, serving as a critical avenue for Russian movement deeper into the city.

As we have become used to, Russian infiltration tactics remain a defining feature of the battle. Small assault and reconnaissance groups have repeatedly penetrated Ukrainian lines, appearing not only in Osykove but also in areas further north toward Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka. While several infiltration groups have reportedly been eliminated, the reality is Ukrainian defensive lines have many gaps on this front. The volume of infiltrators entering the urban area appears to exceed the rate at which they can be identified and destroyed, gradually increasing Russian presence inside the city and complicating Ukrainian command and control.

Information and map source: Playfra via X

The battle increasingly resembles previous Russian urban operations (such as Pokrovsk and Avdiivka) in which large numbers of small assault groups were used to saturate defensive positions, forcing defenders into a continuous cycle of clearing infiltrators while new groups enter through gaps in the front. Although Russian casualties remain substantial, the concentration of resources on this axis has allowed offensive momentum to continue.

Operationally, the outlook for Kostyantynivka is increasingly unfavourable for Ukraine. While a successful defence remains theoretically possible, it would likely require the transfer of significant reserves from other sectors, creating vulnerabilities elsewhere along the front. This is another example of the “death of a thousand paper cuts” strategy that I have discussed many times before.

As a result, Ukrainian priorities may increasingly shift toward attritional warfare—maximising Russian losses, preserving experienced personnel, preventing encirclements, and preparing subsequent defensive positions along the Druzhkivka line. The operational reality is that without a major Ukrainian reinforcement effort or a significant operational setback for Russian forces, the likelihood of continued Russian advances in the Kostyantynivka sector remains high in the coming weeks if not days.