Is Ukraine Using Ballistic Missiles? Huge Russian Air Attack On Kyiv

Russia-Ukraine War

Russia has responded to Ukraine’s recent barrage of drones, cruise missiles and allegedly ballistic missiles. Yes, you read that right – we are at stage in this war that Ukraine is possibly launching ballistic missiles.

Before I get into the alleged ballistic missile, let’s first dissect the large combined missile and OWA attack – which was primarily centred on Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv.

This is the timeline in the last few days. On June 27, Ukraine carried out one of its deepest missile strikes to date, with three to four FP-5 "Flamingo" cruise missiles striking the Titan-Barikady military plant in Volgograd, approximately 500 kilometres from the Ukrainian border. The facility manufactures launcher systems and critical components for Russia's Iskander-M ballistic missiles, as well as the Yars and Topol-M strategic missile systems, making it a significant target within Russia's defence-industrial complex.

Two days later, on June 29, Russia launched a comparatively limited strike package against Kyiv consisting of nine missiles, including seven Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and two Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles launched from Bryansk, Kursk and Voronezh oblasts. Ukrainian air defences intercepted five of the nine missiles, including one Zircon and four Iskander-Ms, resulting in a 50 percent interception rate for Zircon missiles and approximately 57 percent for Iskander-Ms. The remaining four missiles struck targets in eastern and southwestern Kyiv, with Patriot air defence systems reportedly performing particularly well in the southwestern sector of the city (Source: AMK_Mapping).

In response, Russia launched a huge missile and drone strike primarily targeting Kyiv. Approximately 82 missiles were launched during a coordinated attack, including around 34 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 24 Iskander-M and S-400 ballistic missiles, 12 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, eight Kalibr cruise missiles and four Kh-59/69 cruise missiles. Based on current assessments, Ukrainian air defences intercepted at least 10 Kh-101s, all eight Kalibr missiles, all four Kh-59/69 missiles and four Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles (AMK_Mapping). This represents a significantly lower interception rate than seen during the previous two large-scale Russian missile attacks, particularly against ballistic and hypersonic weapons. You will likely see higher interception rates on Ukrainian channels, but I would be cautious in taking their word for truth.

The primary focus of the July 2 strike was military infrastructure across Kyiv. Confirmed targets included the Chaika logistics depot, the Kyiv Central Design Bureau of Valves machine-building plant, the vicinity of Trolley Bus Depot No. 2, the Euroformat mechanical engineering plant and Euroterminal logistics warehouse, an assembly workshop belonging to the ATLON AVIA drone production enterprise, and the Rapid transport and logistics company. Two additional targets in western and southwestern Kyiv have yet to be identified. To quote AMK, it should also be noted that the total number of missiles launched may ultimately prove to be slightly higher than current estimates, as not every launch is always detected during an attack.

During an air raid alert over Moscow Oblast on June 30, Russian military-linked Telegram channel Voyennyy Osvedomitel reported that S-300 and S-400 air defence systems engaged a target at unusually high altitude before a large crater was discovered at the impact site. Ukrainian OSINT group CyberBoroshno later geolocated the crater near the village of Yudanovka, southwest of Moscow.

The combination of a high-altitude interception, the crater's size, and the distance from Ukraine has led several analysts to speculate the object may have been the FP-9, a heavy ballistic missile under development by Ukrainian company Fire Point. However, this assessment remains based on circumstantial evidence, with no visual confirmation or official acknowledgement.

The speculation aligns with recent comments from Fire Point co-founder Denys Shtilerman, who said the missile's engine was nearing completion and that test flights toward Moscow would begin after successful validation.

If the missile was indeed the FP-9, its reported specifications include an 855-kilometre range, an 800-kilogram warhead, and speeds exceeding Mach 7. Even without confirmation, the incident suggests Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities may be entering a new phase… A phase which I have repeatedly talked about, a phase where Russia loses its payload advantage. Ukraine has long received the short end of the stick due to the fact Russia could target hardened infrastructure, now Ukraine can do the same. However, when asked Fire Point’s Denys Shtilierman was asked on X whether this was the FP-9, he denied that the missile intercepted near Moscow was the ballistic missile. What do you think?