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Thursday Brief · Issue #363
Is The Ceasefire Dead In Everything But Name?
Back to homeBasedment Analysis
ISSUE #363Thursday, 11 June 20265 min read5 stories · 1 deep dive
01
The Briefing
◆Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. From the Middle East to Asia, today’s headlines are defined by rising geopolitical friction, with the US and Iran once again exchanging strikes across the region as tensions show little sign of easing. In Europe and beyond, diplomatic strain between China and the EU adds another layer of global uncertainty, with cancelled meetings highlighting growing economic and strategic divides.
Elsewhere, Pope Leo’s visit to the Canary Islands puts a humanitarian spotlight on migration routes into Europe, while tragedy has struck in Pakistan after a military helicopter crash in Kashmir claimed all on board. In Colombia, a tight runoff race is shaping up as voters weigh sharply different visions for the country’s security and economic future ahead of a decisive vote.
In today’s Conflict Tracker, we examine whether the ceasefire is now effectively dead in practice, following yet another round of missile and drone exchanges across the region.
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 11 Jun 2026
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The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
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US and Iran exchange strikes across Middle East for second day in a row
The United States and Iran exchanged military strikes across the Middle East for a second consecutive day, further straining efforts to preserve a fragile ceasefire and prevent a broader regional conflict. U.S. forces carried out additional strikes on Iranian military infrastructure, while Iran launched missile and drone attacks targeting locations hosting American forces in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, with most reported to have been intercepted by regional air defence systems. The renewed hostilities have heightened concerns over regional stability.
02
Pope Leo heads to Canary Islands on mission to aid migrants
Pope Leo XIV travelled to Spain’s Canary Islands as part of a mission focused on the treatment of migrants arriving in Europe via the Atlantic route from Africa. During the visit, he met with migrants, refugee organisations and humanitarian groups, while calling for greater respect for human dignity and a more humane approach to migration policies. The trip highlights the Pope’s continued emphasis on migration as a major global issue and shines a spotlight on the Canary Islands, which have become one of Europe’s busiest entry points for irregular migration.
03
Pakistan military helicopter crashes in Kashmir, all on board killed
A Pakistan Army Mi-17 military helicopter crashed near Muzaffarabad in Pakistan-administered Kashmir during takeoff, killing all personnel on board. Pakistan’s military said the aircraft went down due to a technical fault, while rescue teams were deployed to the scene and a formal investigation was launched to determine the exact cause of the accident. The crash occurred amid heightened security tensions in the region, though officials said there was no indication the incident was linked to ongoing unrest in Kashmir.
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Colombia’s De La Espriella leads Cepeda in runoff poll
A new opinion poll ahead of Colombia’s June 21 presidential runoff shows right-wing candidate Abelardo De La Espriella holding a lead over left-wing rival Iván Cepeda in one of the country’s most closely watched elections in years. The survey projected De La Espriella winning 52.6% of valid votes compared with 44.8% for Cepeda, highlighting the challenge facing the candidate backed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro. The runoff will present voters with a stark choice between De La Espriella’s security-focused, pro-business platform and Cepeda’s pledge to expand social reforms and continue peace negotiations with armed groups.
05
China cancels high-level meetings with EU
China has reportedly cancelled two high-level diplomatic meetings with the European Union in Beijing, in a move that comes amid growing trade and economic tensions between the two sides. The cancelled talks included discussions on digital policy and a planned meeting involving senior EU diplomatic officials, with Beijing providing no public explanation for the decision. The development highlights the increasingly strained relationship between China and the EU as both sides clash over trade imbalances, market access, technology restrictions and industrial policy.
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Daily Deep Dive
◆Analysis · middle east
Is The Ceasefire Dead In Everything But Name?
In today’s Conflict Tracker, we examine whether the ceasefire is now effectively dead in practice, following yet another round of missile and drone exchanges across the region.
Conflict Tracker
Gulf War
The United States and Iran have entered their most dangerous escalation since the April 8 truce, with Washington launching a second consecutive night of strikes and Tehran answering with attacks on American bases across three countries.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed strikes on what he called key facilities inside Iran, speaking from CENTCOM headquarters in Tampa on Wednesday. Within minutes, Iranian outlet IRNA reported explosions in Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, Gorgan and Hengam, with air defences activated across Fars province. Blasts were also reported near Tehran in Abyek, Qarchak, Nazarabad and Karaj, and further south at Kharg Island, the critical oil export hub in the Persian Gulf. CENTCOM framed the strikes, which began at 5:15pm ET, as a response to what it called Iran's unwarranted and continued aggression.
The trigger was Tuesday's downing of a US Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz by an Iranian drone – which we covered last night and I recommend reading that for extra context. Both pilots were recovered, and the US hit 20 targets inside Iran in response. Trump later stated that 49 Tomahawk missiles were fired, with some targets sitting roughly 40 miles from Tehran.
Iran's retaliation has been regional. The IRGC launched strikes on US forces in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, and Tehran ordered the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels. Iran's foreign ministry declared the ceasefire practically meaningless.The targeting choices matter as much as the volume. Iranian media reported that two concrete water reservoirs in Sirik County, Hormozgan Province, were struck, continuing a pattern of infrastructure targeting that began in March. Hegseth dodged a question on whether striking civilian infrastructure would constitute a war crime. The
Diplomacy has not collapsed entirely. A Qatari delegation arrived in Tehran on Wednesday for talks aimed at ending the war. But Trump's framing that Iran will pay the price for taking too long to negotiate, suggests Washington now views military pressure as the negotiation itself. The Pakistan-mediated truce held for two months. Its successor will be harder to build.
The biggest elephant in the room here is Israel. If there is one group in this conflict that doesn’t benefit from an end to the war is Netanyahu and his party. In this sense, Israel holds the keys to peace because it is the party that has escalation as a possible political move. While I've got you...
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Tweet of the Day
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kyle
@kyle4prezident · Twitter / X
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Today in History
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This Day in History
TODAY IN HISTORY (June 11, 1742): The empress Maria Theresa of Austria decided to make peace with Prussian King Frederick II, ceding almost all of Silesia to him in the Treaty of Breslau, which marked the end of the First Silesian War.
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