ISSUE #390📅Tuesday, 21 July 2026⏱6 min read📑5 stories · 1 deep dive
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The Briefing
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Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. The geopolitical heat remains firmly switched on, with Iran-backed Houthi forces opening another potential maritime flashpoint by declaring a blockade on Saudi shipping, while Lebanon takes its first steps toward restoring state control in the south.
Meanwhile, Trump turns up the pressure on trade with sweeping tariffs on Canadian goods, and tensions in the Indo-Pacific rise after another confrontation between Chinese and Philippine forces in the South China Sea.
And in today’s conflict tracker, we look at how Iran's missile have become much more accurate, as they shift their focus to Jordan in an attempt to get to Israel.
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 21 Jul 2026
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The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
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Iran-backed Houthis declare maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia
Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi movement has declared an immediate maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, saying it will target Saudi-linked shipping in retaliation for what it describes as years of Saudi-led restrictions on Yemen. The announcement follows renewed Houthi missile attacks on Saudi territory, ending a four-year period of relative calm and opening another potential front in the wider regional conflict linked to the U.S.-Iran war. The move has raised concerns over the security of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a vital global shipping route connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, with analysts warning it could further disrupt energy supplies and international trade if enforced.
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Lebanon’s military starts ‘pilot zone’ takeover in Southern Lebanon
The Lebanese Armed Forces have begun deploying to three "pilot zones" in southern Lebanon under a US-brokered framework agreement aimed at restoring government control in areas previously dominated by Hezbollah. The phased initiative is designed to facilitate the withdrawal of Israeli troops, dismantle unauthorized weapons and military infrastructure, and establish the Lebanese army as the sole security authority in the designated areas. The pilot deployment is being closely coordinated with the United States and Israel, and is widely viewed as a key test of the broader ceasefire and stabilization framework agreed to last month.
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Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun meets Rubio ahead of Trump talks
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun met U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington ahead of his scheduled talks with President Donald Trump, with discussions focusing on implementing the U.S.-brokered framework between Lebanon and Israel. Rubio praised the Lebanese government's efforts to strengthen state authority, including plans to bring all weapons under government control, while reaffirming U.S. support for Lebanon's security and economic reforms. Aoun's subsequent meeting with Trump is expected to focus on securing U.S. backing for a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and advancing the framework agreement aimed at reducing tensions along the border.
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Trump slaps 50pc tariffs on Canadian goods in fresh trade turmoil
Donald Trump has imposed new 50% tariffs on nearly US$20 billion worth of Canadian imports, citing what the White House described as discriminatory Canadian trade policies affecting American automobiles, dairy products and alcohol. The tariffs, introduced under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, exempt energy products, potash, fish and critical minerals but mark a significant escalation in trade tensions between the two countries. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney condemned the move and said Ottawa would continue seeking a negotiated resolution, while warning the tariffs could increase costs for businesses and consumers on both sides of the border.
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Chinese, Philippine personnel clash in the South China Sea
Chinese Coast Guard personnel and Philippine Navy sailors clashed near the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, with both sides accusing each other of provoking the confrontation. The Philippines said a Chinese officer struck a Filipino sailor with a wooden baton, causing a serious head injury, while China alleged Philippine personnel rammed a Chinese patrol boat and assaulted its officers with sticks. The incident marks one of the most serious physical confrontations between the two sides in recent months and is expected to heighten tensions ahead of regional diplomatic talks in Manila.
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Daily Deep Dive
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Analysis · Dispatch
Iran's New Accuracy And Strategy - Target Jordan To Get To Israel
We look at how Iran's missile have become much more accurate, as they shift their focus to Jordan in an attempt to get to Israel.
Basedment Analysis
Third Gulf War Summary Over the past 48 hours, Iran has kept up the pattern of retaliatory fire that has defined this phase of the war, aiming at the Gulf states and Jordan that host United States forces rather than at American territory directly. On 19 July, Iran fired drones and missiles at Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, after an eighth consecutive night of US strikes on Iranian cities, including an attack on the partly built Darkhovin nuclear facility. Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan reported multiple waves of Iranian strikes on Sunday, and Kuwaiti authorities said one attack started a fire at a power and water plant. That followed a similar strike on a Kuwaiti desalination plant the previous days, a serious pressure point in an arid state that depends heavily on both water and electricity infrastructure.
The barrage came a day after Iran launched renewed attacks on US Gulf allies on 18 July, following a seventh straight night of US strikes on Iranian military sites, with both sides also taking aim at shipping. Tehran has again declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, and the Revolutionary Guard has justified each round by arguing that Washington uses its regional bases as launchpads to strike Iran. Its recent claimed target list has run through US facilities in Juffair in Bahrain, radar sites in Oman, and positions in Kuwait and Jordan. Iran says US strikes have killed at least 46 people and wounded more than 400 since hostilities resumed. The tempo suggests neither side is seeking an off-ramp, and the risk to Gulf civilian infrastructure is climbing with every exchange
New Accuracy, New Strategy
With the latest rounds of strikes well underway, what strikes me most is the increased accuracy on the Iranian side – and there is clearly a new strategy. According to CBS, nearly 100 US service members have been injured in Iranian attacks on multiple Middle East bases this month, some suffered traumatic brain injuries, 96% have returned to duty, Pentagon spokesman confirms. There have been several direct impacts on U.S. bases in the region, with extremely accurate targeting well over 1000km away. Analysts suggest that Iran may be receiving target coordination assistance from Russian or Chinese satellites. This may be the case, but I would also say that with every exchange, there is room for improvement and calibration. What we’re seeing from the Iranians is that with every pause in fighting, there is a scramble to learn and adapt from mistakes – and this latest round of strikes has proved some of the most deadliest for the U.S. and its allies.
Strikes on U.S. base in Jordan targeting hangers
Another noticeable factor is that Jordan is the key, the last and most important layer defending Israel, which is why Iran has turned its fire there. The rising rate of direct hits is not an accident. It follows weeks of Iranian strikes on the radars and command equipment the United States has spread across Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar, combined with the steady depletion of Gulf air defence interceptors, something no campaign could achieve in a matter of days. Iran is now working through that architecture methodically, layer by layer, toward Amman. This, coupled with the growing fears of interceptor depletion, could prove major problem for Israel.
Latest targeting (source: MenchOSINT via X)
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Today in History
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This Day in History
TODAY IN HISTORY (July 21, 1798): Egyptians defeated in the Battle of the Pyramids
Napoleon’s Army of Egypt used a new military tactic, the massive divisional square, to defeat the Egyptian forces of Murād Bey this day in 1798 at the Battle of the Pyramids during Napoleon’s Egyptian campaign.
