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Tuesday Brief · Issue #405
Houthi's Continue Strikes On Saudi Backed Groups As Yemen Heats Up
Back to homeBasedment Analysis
ISSUE #405Tuesday, 11 August 20265 min read5 stories · 1 deep dive
01
The Briefing
◆Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. Today's edition takes us from rising tensions on NATO's eastern flank to a drone attack on Libya's oil infrastructure, while a devastating earthquake in Colombia has left more than 130 people dead and hundreds injured.
Meanwhile, Trump is demanding compensation from Iran as negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz continue, and Australia and Vietnam are deepening their strategic partnership with new agreements spanning defence, critical minerals, semiconductors and clean energy.
And in our deep dive, as the direct conflict between the U.S and Iran has paused, a new front in Yemen has opened.
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 11 Aug 2026
02
The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
◆01
Poland and Baltics tighten critical infrastructure security amid Russian concerns
Poland and the Baltic states are tightening security around critical infrastructure amid concerns that Russia could stage a false-flag attack using drones or other forms of sabotage. Lithuania has deployed troops to protect key energy facilities, while Latvia has increased security around the Daugava River dam and Incukalns gas storage site, and Polish energy companies are reassessing infrastructure and supply routes. The measures follow intelligence assessments that Russia could seek to exploit attacks on infrastructure to create confusion within NATO and provoke a wider response, although Moscow has denied the allegations.
02
Fire breaks out at Libya’s Zawiya refinery after drone attack
A fire broke out at Libya’s Zawiya refinery after a series of drone attacks targeted oil infrastructure in the western city, including a fuel depot and blending and filling facility. One strike caused a storage tank containing around 4.5 million litres of gasoline to catch fire and collapse, although authorities reported no casualties and said refinery operations had so far continued. Libya’s National Oil Corporation has warned it could halt operations and declare force majeure if the attacks continue, with no group having claimed responsibility for the strikes.
03
At least 132 people killed, many trapped as powerful earthquake hits Colombia
A powerful 7.4-magnitude earthquake struck western Colombia on Monday, killing at least 132 people and injuring more than 570, with the epicentre near San José del Palmar in Chocó. The quake caused widespread structural damage across cities including Pereira, Cali and Manizales, with buildings and hospitals collapsing and people reportedly trapped beneath rubble as rescue teams continued searching for survivors. Authorities declared a national emergency and warned of further aftershocks, while the scale of damage and disrupted communications in some areas has complicated efforts to determine the full extent of the disaster.
04
Trump demands compensation from Iran as talks on Strait of Hormuz continue
Donald Trump has demanded that Iran pay compensation for Americans killed or wounded in conflicts involving Tehran, after Iran called for reparations for damage caused by the US and Israel during the recent war. The demands come as US-Iran negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz continue, with Iran linking the waterway’s reopening to broader conditions including an end to hostilities, sanctions relief and compensation.
05
Australia and Vietnam deepen strategic partnership
Australia and Vietnam have agreed to deepen their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, signing new cooperation agreements covering defence, agriculture and border security during Vietnamese President To Lam’s visit to Australia. The two countries also agreed to strengthen cooperation on critical minerals, semiconductors and clean energy, while expressing concern over restrictive global trade practices and supply-chain vulnerabilities. The leaders also reaffirmed the importance of maintaining peace and resolving disputes peacefully in the South China Sea, as bilateral trade reached A$8.1 billion in the first half of 2026, up 22% year-on-year.
03
Daily Deep Dive
◆Analysis · middle east
Houthi's Continue Strikes On Saudi Backed Groups As Yemen Heats Up
As the direct conflict between the U.S and Iran has paused, a new front in Yemen has opened.
Conflict Tracker
Third Gulf War
The never ending circle of life… Trump on Monday introduced a new demand that Iran pay compensation for deaths caused over the past 50 years, responding to Tehran's own conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Supreme National Security Council said Saturday the strait stays closed until Washington lifts its naval blockade and sanctions, withdraws forces from the region, pays war reparations and releases frozen assets. Trump countered that payments should cover US personnel killed in the region and Iranian protesters, and claimed the US now has full control of the waterway. The exchange has stalled momentum that last week suggested a deal was close. The one functioning track is Iran's negotiation with Oman, where both sides say a shipping route map through the strait has been agreed, with technical issues outstanding.
In Tehran, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reshaped the military leadership with six senior appointments, naming Ali Abdollahi armed forces chief of staff, Ahmad Vahidi IRGC commander-in-chief and Ali Azmaei IRGC Navy commander. Analysts read the reshuffle as consolidating hardline IRGC factions that favour prolonging the conflict and extracting concessions through sustained pressure. This is if we assume the leader is actually alive and not just being puppeteered by IRGC hardliners.
The Yemen front is deteriorating fastest. Houthi strikes on Sunday killed at least 11 people in the government-held Red Sea port of Mokha, three civilians and eight military personnel, in waves of missile and drone barrages. The group also claimed a drone strike on the Aramco refinery in Jizan, framed as retaliation for Saudi drone incursions over Saada and Hajjah. Saudi authorities extinguished the fire and reported no casualties. This follows Thursday's missile and drone assault on Marib and Hadramout that killed at least 58 government troops, the deadliest since 2022, and cross-border fire that wounded 11 civilians in Najran.
The Pentagon, meanwhile, is pressing US defence firms to accelerate weapons production, signalling preparation for a longer campaign despite the deal rhetoric. To add onto this fiasco, it’s being reported that US defence firms are hesitant to allow Ukraine to build their own Patriot systems et al, as it may show that these systems can be made for much less than what is currently being charged…aah I love capitalism.
04
Tweet of the Day
◆Tweet of the Day
Aaron Rupar
@atrupar · Twitter / X
holy shit Trump is OUT
05
Today in History
◆—
This Day in History
TODAY IN HISTORY (Aug 11, 1934): America’s escape-proof prison opens
On this day in 1934, Alcatraz welcomed its first civilian prisoners, a group of 14 from the federal penitentiary on McNeil Island, Washington. The move was part of the government’s efforts to combat the upswing in crime that had come with Prohibition, and Alcatraz was well fortified. A who’s-who of America’s criminals would soon reside there, including Al Capone and Machine Gun Kelly. Until its closure in 1963, there were no known successful escapes.
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