ISSUE #392📅Thursday, 23 July 2026⏱5 min read📑5 stories · 1 deep dive
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The Briefing
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Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. From the Red Sea to the Taiwan Strait, today’s headlines highlight how quickly regional flashpoints can escalate, with Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers raising shipping concerns and China conducting fresh military drills near Taiwan.
Meanwhile, diplomats gather in Manila to navigate a growing list of global crises, Thailand faces another deadly insurgent attack, and Greece moves to strengthen its defences with a major Israeli-built air defence system.
Reports are coming out that Russian forces have been encircled north of Lyman - the question is, is that true?
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 23 Jul 2026
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The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
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Yemen’s Houthis say they targeted two Saudi oil tankers using missiles & drones
Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi movement said it targeted two Saudi oil tankers, ENCELIA and LAYLA, in the Red Sea using missiles and drones, claiming the vessels had violated its newly declared maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia. Saudi authorities confirmed that one tanker, ENCELIA, caught fire after the attack but said all crew members were safe, while shipping data showed several vessels rerouted to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The incident marks a significant escalation in Red Sea tensions, raising concerns over the security of one of the world's busiest maritime trade routes and the potential impact on global energy supplies.
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Top diplomats gather for security forum in Southeast Asia
Top diplomats from across Asia, Europe and North America gathered in Manila for the ASEAN Regional Forum, with discussions dominated by the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran and its impact on global energy security. Leaders also addressed rising tensions in the South China Sea, the war in Ukraine and Myanmar's ongoing civil conflict, while calling for greater multilateral cooperation to manage growing geopolitical instability. On the sidelines of the forum, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held separate meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, underscoring the event's role as one of the region's key diplomatic gatherings.
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China conducts live-fire military drills near Taiwan amid rising tensions
China has begun two days of live-fire military drills in the Taiwan Strait, with exercises taking place near Dongshan Island in Fujian province, opposite Taiwan. Beijing said the drills are routine, but they come a day after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, where Taiwan was a key topic of discussion, and amid ongoing tensions over U.S. support for the self-governed island. Taiwan's government has condemned the exercises as another attempt by Beijing to increase military pressure, while regional observers warn the drills could further heighten tensions across the Taiwan Strait.
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Five soldiers killed in Southern Thailand checkpoint attack
Five Thai paramilitary soldiers were killed after armed assailants attacked a security checkpoint in Narathiwat province, opening fire and throwing pipe bombs before fleeing with stolen weapons. Six civilians, including a 10-year-old boy, were also injured in what authorities described as one of the deadliest attacks on security forces in southern Thailand in recent years. The assault highlights the persistence of the decades-long separatist insurgency in Thailand's Muslim-majority southern provinces, where more than 7,000 people have been killed since violence reignited in 2004.
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Greece to buy €3.5 billion air defence system from Israel
Greece is expected to approve a €3.5 billion deal to purchase a multi-layered air and missile defence system from Israel, significantly strengthening its ability to counter ballistic missiles, aircraft and drones. The "Achilles Shield" network will incorporate Israeli radar and interceptor systems developed by Rafael and Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), forming the centrepiece of Greece's broader €28 billion military modernisation plan through 2036. The acquisition comes as Greece continues to bolster its defence capabilities amid longstanding tensions with neighbouring Turkey and increasing security concerns across the Eastern Mediterranean.
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Daily Deep Dive
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Analysis · russia-ukraine war
Have The Russians Been Encircled In Lyman?
Reports are coming out that Russian forces have been encircled north of Lyman - the question is, is that true?
Basedment Analysis
Russia-Ukraine Two maps have been making rounds in the last 24 hours suggesting that Russian forces may be encircled in their pincer north of Lyman. Since mid-April Ukrainian forces launched significant counterattacks pushing back Russian forces west of the Nitrius river. Russian forces had been advancing westwards creating a springboard ward in an attempt to both reach Sloviansk from the north, but also complicate logistics supplying Ukrainian defence of Lyman. Thus, this was a major focus point for Ukrainian assault units who managed to exploit weak Russian consolidation in the area.
Yet OSINT analyst @AMK_Mapping says recent claims that Ukrainian forces have encircled a large number of Russian troops north of Lyman are unfounded. According to AMK, the rumour originated from a small Ukrainian Telegram channel that allegedly misinterpreted Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, confusing Ukrainian artillery and MLRS strikes with Russian KAB glide bomb impacts. This led to maps showing an encirclement that does not exist. AMK_Mapping notes there remains roughly 11 km between Ukraine's northern and southern axes, including contested grey zones, making such an encirclement impossible. While Ukraine's counteroffensive, launched in mid-April, successfully recaptured several important positions like we have discussed in previous newsletters, the pace of advances has slowed in recent weeks. He also claims Russian forces have regained some ground near Zelena Dolyna and resumed assaults around Stavky and Drobysheve, placing additional pressure on Ukraine's southern flank.
I want to agree with AMK here as no other major OSINT account has suggested the same. Pro-Ukrainian accounts had also used Rybar’s map as evidence of this supposed counterattack. Now, if you have been following Rybar for a while you will see that they are generally a “doomer” and can often show the worst result for Russian forces, even though they are a pro-Russian source. Another point of consideration is that their analysis on Telegram does not suggest a Ukrainian breakthrough regardless. According to Rybar; Russian forces continued strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure over the past day, targeting port facilities in Odesa Oblast, while a Geran drone reportedly destroyed a Territorial Recruitment Center (TCC) building in Chernihiv. The channel also claimed ongoing attacks against Ukrainian fuel stations. Meanwhile, Rybar says Ukraine launched a large-scale drone campaign against ten municipalities in the Russian-occupied Luhansk region, with five people reportedly wounded. Additional Ukrainian strikes allegedly targeted Belgorod, Lipetsk, Vladimir, Crimea, and Krasnodar Krai, damaging infrastructure, causing casualties, and triggering localized power outages. These claims remain unverified.
TODAY IN HISTORY (July 23, 1952): Egyptian monarchy toppled by coup
On this day in 1952, the Free Officers, a nationalistic military group organized by Colonel Gamal Abdel Nasser, led a coup that overthrew King Farouk I of Egypt, ending the monarchy and making Major General Muḥammad Naguib the country’s notional leader.
