GEOPOLITICS DAILY BRIEFING - 29 June

Following the fall of Bakhmut in 2023, Ukrainian forces established a hardened defensive line behind the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas Canal. The canal served not only as a physical barrier—acting as a natural moat—but also as a key defensive feature to blunt Russian armoured and infantry advances. This fortified line was a major reason Russian forces struggled to make gains around Chasiv Yar for months.

The yellow dots and lines are representations of Ukrainian defences (trenches, fortifications).

But over the course of many months, Russian forces have breached the Chasiv Yar defences and advanced into Stupochky, placing them on the canal’s western flank. Stupochky is also on an elevated position, further threatening the defences on the canal. More critically, a separate axis of advance is unfolding further south. Naturally, with the advance of Russian units from Toretsk, the southern part of the canal’s flank has been exposed. This manoeuvre has outflanked many of the canal-based defences, putting their strategic value into question.

Russian tactics in the area continue to rely on reconnaissance-in-force operations, as discussed in previous analysis. Small units—often just 1 to 4 soldiers—probe no-man’s-land, identify vulnerabilities, and call in follow-on elements to exploit gaps. This approach is being applied aggressively south of Bila Hora. The town holds significant tactical relevance: it sits on the western edge of a potential pincer movement. If Russian forces manage to advance from Bila Hora and create a push from Stupochky, they risk encircling Ukrainian positions along the canal. Using the wooded terrain near Dyiilivka, Russian troops are navigating treelines to avoid drone detection and bypass fixed fortifications. There is also a considerable fortification system east of Bila Hora, that is protecting the southern flank of the remaining canal fortifications. Taking Bila Hora, will expose this fortification.

Sources: Sukiyaki T Playinfra X