ISSUE #447📅Thursday, 8 October 2026⏱6 min read📑5 stories · 1 deep dive
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The Briefing
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Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. Today’s edition begins with students taking to Belgium’s streets, while Syria’s president visits Riyadh amid questions over a possible role in Yemen.
Washington is reopening dialogue with Myanmar’s military authorities, Houthi attacks have struck Saudi airports, and US and Russian officials are quietly exploring whether Nord Stream could someday return to business.
And finally, Malian and Russian forces have regained Kidal as Ethiopia’s federal counteroffensive pushes further into Tigray, with both advances raising questions over whether territorial gains can secure lasting control amid continued insurgent activity and growing regional involvement.
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 08 Oct 2026
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The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
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Belgian student protests against education costs echo France
Hundreds of students have protested in Liège against rising education costs, overcrowded classrooms and difficulties accessing study materials in Belgium’s French-language education system. The unrest follows reforms that increased annual tuition fees for most students from €835 to €1,194, alongside plans to reduce education spending by €500 million by 2029. Belga reported 107 arrests linked to offences including property damage and arson, while protesters said similar demonstrations in neighbouring France had helped reignite their movement.
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Sharaa visits Riyadh amid speculation about Syrian role in Yemen
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh for talks on bilateral cooperation and regional developments. A US official and a Syrian military official told Reuters that Damascus is considering military assistance for Saudi Arabia in its escalating conflict with Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis, potentially including defensive or technical support. No deployment has been approved, and official Syrian statements made no mention of Yemen, instead highlighting reconstruction, investment and closer economic relations.
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US begins direct talks with Myanmar’s military authorities
The Trump administration has opened direct talks with Myanmar’s military-installed government, reversing Washington’s policy of isolating the country’s generals following the 2021 coup. Reuters reported that senior US official Michael Vance met President Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyidaw in September, helping secure American businessman Adam Castillo’s release while also discussing online scam centres and Myanmar’s rare-earth resources. The State Department said engagement with the military authorities would not diminish US relations with Myanmar’s democratic opposition and ethnic armed groups, while Min Aung Hlaing and other senior officials remain under American sanctions.
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Houthi attacks kill three at Saudi airports, including in Riyadh
Attacks on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and Abha International Airport killed three foreign residents and wounded 36 people, according to Saudi Arabia’s civil aviation authority. A Sudanese national was killed and eight people were injured in Riyadh, while Moroccan and Algerian residents were killed and 28 others wounded in Abha; the Houthis claimed responsibility for both strikes. The Saudi-led coalition said the attacks would not go unpunished and subsequently struck more than 80 Houthi military sites across Yemen as fighting between the rebels and Saudi-backed government forces intensified.
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US and Russia explore gas sale to Europe amid Ukraine war
Senior US and Russian officials have discussed bringing an American investor into the Nord Stream pipelines, potentially allowing Russian gas sales to Europe to resume after the war in Ukraine, according to Reuters. The reported talks involved US envoy Jared Kushner and Kremlin adviser Kirill Dmitriev, although a White House official said there had been no recent Nord Stream discussions and any deal would need to benefit American companies and taxpayers. No agreement has been reached, and the proposal faces major obstacles because the pipelines are sanctioned by the United States and European Union, while Germany’s government opposes their reopening.
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Daily Deep Dive
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Analysis · africa
Ethiopian War Expands, As Russian Forces Recapture Kidal In Mali
Malian and Russian forces have regained Kidal as Ethiopia’s federal counteroffensive pushes further into Tigray, with both advances raising questions over whether territorial gains can secure lasting control amid continued insurgent activity and growing regional involvement.
Basedment Analysis
Conflict Tracker
Africa Ethiopia’s northern war draws in Eritrea Over the past week, Ethiopia’s renewed northern conflict has shifted from opposition advances towards a federal counteroffensive, with the recapture of Mekelle followed by troop movements and airstrikes further north. The involvement of Eritrean forces now threatens to turn an internal war into direct confrontation between neighbouring states.
On 3 October, the Ethiopian National Defence Force and government-aligned Tigray Peace Force entered Mekelle after Tigrayan forces withdrew. Federal troops subsequently captured Agula, northeast of the city, while fighting continued around the Tekeze River in western Tigray. These gains have displaced opposition forces without establishing that their capacity to continue fighting has collapsed.
Airstrikes and artillery exchanges continued after Mekelle’s fall, with a humanitarian bulletin reporting at least 17 deaths in Adwa and Sheraro overnight into 5 October. Reuters could not independently verify those figures, but the reports indicate that fighting has continued beyond the regional capital.
The government faces the Alliance for Survival, which brings together the TPLF, Amhara Fano National Movement, Oromo Liberation Army and other opposition groups. Their shared opposition to Abiy Ahmed has created cooperation between former adversaries, although territorial disputes and differing political objectives complicate sustained coordination.
On 7 October, witnesses reported Eritrean soldiers moving through Adigrat, while ACLED reported Ethiopian drone strikes against Eritrean vehicles travelling towards Idaga Hamus. Those reported strikes occurred inside Tigray, rather than establishing that Ethiopia has bombed Eritrean territory. Eritrea denies the reported deployment.
This escalation follows the severing of diplomatic relations on 1 October, amid Ethiopian accusations that Eritrea supports the opposition. Relations have deteriorated over unresolved postwar tensions and Ethiopia’s pursuit of Red Sea access, which Asmara regards as a potential threat to its sovereignty. The immediate concern is that continued clashes inside Tigray could expand across the border, adding an interstate war to Ethiopia’s overlapping domestic conflicts. Malian and Russian forces return to Kidal Malian forces and Russia’s Africa Corps have recaptured Kidal following an air campaign that prompted the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) to withdraw, returning the northern stronghold to government control after its loss during the April offensive. Mainstream reporting places the entry on 6 October, correcting earlier accounts that dated the recapture to 5 October.
The operation developed around Anefis, southwest of Kidal, where Malian troops, Russian personnel and government-aligned militias assembled before advancing north. Reporting describes sustained strikes across the region preceding the advance, while Mali’s government says coordinated ground and air operations restricted access along several approaches to the city.
The FLA presents its departure as a controlled withdrawal intended to preserve personnel and equipment, rather than a battlefield defeat inside Kidal. Reuters reports that government-aligned forces entered after the withdrawal, making claims of heavy rebel casualties difficult to assess independently.
For Bamako, the recapture restores a politically important position in the north and provides Africa Corps with an opportunity to demonstrate its value after earlier setbacks. Kidal has long been associated with Tuareg separatism, meaning its control carries significance beyond the immediate military position.
However, the wider question is whether Malian and Russian forces can sustain their presence while securing surrounding roads and supply routes. The FLA’s withdrawal preserves the possibility of continued operations outside the city, while its cooperation with JNIM brings together distinct movements against a common opponent. Regaining Kidal therefore strengthens the government’s position, but does not establish that the northern insurgency has been decisively weakened.
TODAY IN HISTORY (Oct 8, 1871): The day Chicago burned
On this day in 1871, the Great Chicago Fire erupted on the city’s Southwest Side. It started in a barn owned by Patrick and Catherine O’Leary, but there’s no truth to the popular belief that it was caused by a cow knocking over a lantern. What actually happened remains unknown, though some believe it was a milk thief. Nearly 300 people died, more than 17,000 buildings burned, and 1 in 3 Chicagoans were left homeless. Mrs. O’Leary faced particular scorn, and it wasn’t until 1997 that she—and her cow—were officially exonerated.
