ISSUE #409📅Monday, 17 August 2026⏱4 min read📑5 stories · 1 deep dive
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The Briefing
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Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. Today’s edition begins with an unusual diplomatic shuffle in Asia, as Trump trims US–South Korea military drills while Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin use Liberation Day to reaffirm their increasingly close partnership.
Elsewhere, Zambia’s election count puts Hichilema in front, a Spanish NATO jet brings down an unidentified drone over Romania, and Jared Kushner moves from rare talks with Hamas to a potentially tougher conversation with Netanyahu.
In today’s conflict tracker, we return to Orikhiv; where Russia appears to be turning that once-absurd map into a more serious infiltration effort and assess whether small reconnaissance groups could be laying the groundwork for a broader push in western Zaporizhzhia.…
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 17 Aug 2026
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The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
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Trump scales back joint military drills with South Korea, calling them ‘hostile’
Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to substantially reduce America’s participation in the annual Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises with South Korea, calling the drills costly and a “hostile” signal to North Korea. Trump cited his relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and also criticised Seoul for declining to support US operations against Iran. The 10-day exercises began as scheduled on Monday with approximately 18,000 South Korean troops, focusing on threats including drones, cyberattacks and GPS interference.
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Zambia’s Hichilema takes early lead in reelection bid
Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema took an early lead in his re-election bid, securing 58.87% of the vote after results were declared from 135 of the country’s 226 constituencies. His main challenger, Brian Mundubile, remained in second place, while Hichilema must maintain more than 50% nationally to avoid a runoff. The election is widely viewed as a test of public support for Hichilema’s economic reforms following Zambia’s debt crisis, although counting was briefly suspended after attacks on election officials and the theft of ballot papers.
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NATO fighter jet shoots down drone over Romania
A Spanish F-18 operating under NATO’s air-policing mission shot down an unidentified drone after it entered Romanian airspace from Moldova early on Sunday. The aircraft was intercepted approximately 24 kilometres north of Galați and destroyed over an uninhabited area, with no casualties or property damage reported. Romania has not formally confirmed the drone’s origin, although a NATO spokesperson said it appeared to be Russian, and the incident marked the fourth drone interception over Romania this year.
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North Korea’s Kim, Russia’s Putin reaffirm ties on Korean Liberation Day
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin exchanged messages reaffirming bilateral ties as Pyongyang marked the anniversary of Korea’s liberation from Japanese colonial rule. Putin said cooperation between the countries was expanding across multiple sectors and supporting regional security, while Kim praised their shared wartime history and called for closer relations. The anniversary also included a goodwill visit by the Russian training ship Pallada to Wonsan, as Moscow and Pyongyang continue to deepen military and political cooperation during Russia’s war in Ukraine.
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Kushner to meet Netanyahu after talks with Hamas on Gaza peace plan
US envoy Jared Kushner met Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya in Cairo for rare direct talks aimed at advancing President Donald Trump’s stalled Gaza peace plan. The proposal calls for Hamas’s disarmament, a phased Israeli withdrawal, the creation of a new Palestinian police force and the deployment of an international stabilisation force, but the two sides remain divided over which should act first. Kushner is due to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, where he will seek support for a plan the Israeli leader has publicly opposed in its current form.
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Daily Deep Dive
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Analysis · ukraine
Drills, Drones, Ballots and Backchannels
Today’s newsletter tracks shifting alliances, contested ballots and Ukraine’s front line
Basedment Analysis
Conflict Tracker
Russia - Ukraine
Does anyone remember the map that we shared that the Russian MoD was using, and how absurd it was? Well, it seems that the Russian high command has taken offence to all the online backlash and launched some form of infiltration into Orikhiv…
Russian forces have begun consistently infiltrating Orikhiv and its surrounding settlements, but reports of a large-scale assault on the city remain premature. What is unfolding is better understood as the opening phase of a broader Russian effort to destabilise Ukraine’s western Zaporizhzhia defences.
According to AMK_Mapping, no more than a dozen Russian personnel (likely reconnaissance and sabotage groups) have entered parts of eastern Orikhiv, Preobrazhenka and Mala Tokmachka. These units are moving between positions without establishing territorial control, while there has been no corresponding increase in Russian shelling that would normally precede a major offensive.
Playfra offers a slightly more concerning assessment. The initial Russian special forces operation may have identified a viable infiltration route through Ukrainian lines, which subsequent groups are now exploiting. Russian troops also reportedly remain inside a fortified prison complex near Mala Tokmachka, where Ukrainian forces have been unable to remove them for at least a month. Playfra’s interpretation is most interesting to me as he usually is the first to tone down any Russian claims online of wider breakthroughs.
UAControlMap similarly warns that this is not yet a decisive operation. Neither side currently appears capable of concentrating sufficient forces to achieve a major breakthrough. For now, the fighting will likely remain dominated by shelling, reconnaissance, small-unit infiltration and localised attacks.
However, we believe the tactical purpose of these operations is relatively clear. Russia does not need to capture Orikhiv immediately to produce an effect. Even a small number of infiltrators can force Ukraine to divert scarce infantry, drones and surveillance assets away from established defensive positions.
The immediate situation is therefore neither critical nor indicative of Russian control over Orikhiv. But it is an early warning. If Ukraine fails to close the emerging infiltration routes, Russia may gradually build the reconnaissance, fire-support and logistical infrastructure required for a larger operation.
TODAY IN HISTORY (Aug 17, 1945): Indonesia’s declaration of independence
On this day in 1945, Sukarno declared Indonesia’s independence from the Netherlands, and, after the Dutch transferred sovereignty four years later, he served as the country’s first president (1949–67).
