Do We Finally Have A Peace Deal For The Third Gulf War?

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Gulf War

Did I jinx the war into officially ending? After a dozen or so Axios-sponsored headlines that a peace deal will be signed, to the Strait closing and opening, to renewed strikes and now we’re finally possibly at the end point? The agreement between Washington and Tehran appears to be moving toward a signing, with Friday set as the date for what mediators have been calling the Islamabad declaration, named for the role Pakistan played in brokering it. The text reportedly includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and dismantling parts of Iran's nuclear program, alongside an end to Tehran's funding of regional militant groups and the introduction of an inspection regime. Other reported elements include the release of around 25 billion dollars in frozen Iranian assets, a path toward diluting Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, and a waiver on oil sanctions. Iran's side has framed the moment carefully, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi saying the memorandum has never been closer while urging caution against speculation. I was also reading that the Iranians waited to ensure this was not agreed to on Trumps birthday.

The reaction inside Israel has been almost uniformly negative, cutting across the usual political divides. Politicians from across the spectrum have criticized the agreement, including far right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, while Netanyahu himself has stayed publicly quiet, privately blaming US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff for driving a wedge between him and Trump. Defense Minister Israel Katz has made clear that Israeli forces will not be withdrawing from southern Lebanon as part of any ceasefire, and that this position has already been communicated to Trump directly.

On the right, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called the deal bad for Israel and for the entire free world, suggesting Israel may need to continue its campaign against Iran's nuclear program independently. From the opposition, Yair Lapid described it as one of the most horrific failures of Israel's foreign and defence policy, while Avigdor Liberman framed it as a total victory for the Ayatollahs. Former general turned politician Yair Golan went further, arguing the agreement erases the military gains secured through the recent campaign and accusing Netanyahu of being good for Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran but not for Israel.

The tension boiled over over the weekend when Israeli strikes on Beirut, just an hour before the scheduled signing, prompted Trump to privately criticise Netanyahu in blunt terms. Whether the deal survives this latest friction will likely become clearer as Friday approaches. According to Iranian sources, the IRGC was preparing a large missile strike in response to the strikes on Beirut – and it was at this moment that Trump urged them to not strike and agreed to their demands. I would of course take this with a grain of salt.