Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. Today's edition takes us from the Strait of Hormuz to the halls of power across three continents, with Iran and Oman edging closer to a potential shipping agreement, while Myanmar's military-backed leader makes his first international trip since taking on the presidency.
Trade tensions are also heating up in North America as Canada pushes back against looming U.S. tariffs, fighting continues along the Israel-Lebanon border, and Brazil's presidential race takes another turn with the announcement of a surprise running mate for Flávio Bolsonaro.
And, as countries watch from a distance and learn from the war in Ukraine, Australia is taking the initiative to build an arsenal of autonomous Submarines.
Iran and Oman are finalising a draft agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that would give Iran responsibility for coordinating inbound commercial shipping, while Oman would oversee outbound traffic, according to officials familiar with the negotiations. The proposed arrangement is aimed at restoring maritime traffic after months of disruption, although key issues (including transit fees, inspection procedures and security guarantees) remain unresolved, and no final agreement has yet been signed. Trump has expressed optimism that a deal is close, but Iranian officials have cautioned that negotiations are still ongoing and could be affected by outside developments.
Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing arrived in Thailand for a two-day official visit, marking his first trip there since becoming the country's civilian president following April's widely criticised military-backed election. During the visit, he is expected to meet Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, sign cooperation agreements and attend a Thailand–Myanmar business forum, as Bangkok pursues what it calls a policy of "calibrated re-engagement" with its neighbour despite ongoing civil conflict. The visit has drawn criticism from human rights groups, who argue it risks legitimising Myanmar's military-backed government while violence continues and ASEAN's peace roadmap remains largely unimplemented.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said his government is seeking broader relief from U.S. tariffs as negotiations continue ahead of a planned 50% U.S. tariff on a range of Canadian goods announced by Trump. Carney said the proposed duties would violate the USMCA/CUSMA trade agreement and confirmed that he and Trump had agreed to intensify trade talks, while stressing that Canada is prepared to respond if a negotiated solution cannot be reached. The looming tariffs have added fresh uncertainty to North American trade, with both governments continuing discussions in an effort to avoid further escalation.
At least one Lebanese civilian was killed and 12 others injured in Israeli strikes on the southern town of Tebnine, while two Israeli soldiers were killed and four seriously wounded in an explosion during operations in southern Lebanon, according to the Israeli military. Israel said the strikes targeted Hezbollah positions following what it described as violations of the current security arrangement, while Lebanese officials condemned the attacks as negotiations continued over a phased Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon.
Brazilian presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has named Congressman Alfredo Gaspar as his running mate ahead of October's presidential election, in a move that surprised many observers. Gaspar, a former prosecutor and public security secretary from the northeastern state of Alagoas, was chosen after Bolsonaro failed to secure the backing of several centrist parties that traditionally provide vice-presidential candidates. The announcement comes as polls show a tightening race between Bolsonaro and incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with the conservative campaign seeking to broaden its appeal on public security and anti-corruption issues.
Australia is betting on autonomous undersea mass to hedge against the long timelines of its nuclear submarine ambitions. If you know me personally, you know how much this saga irks me. Australia has a habit of fumbling military purchases and this could be the biggest of them all – yet it seems the Government is thinking proactively as it looks to learn from the war in Ukraine. In September 2025 Canberra committed A$1.7 billion (US$1.1 billion) to a fleet of extra-large "Ghost Shark" attack drones that officials said would supplement plans for nuclear-powered submarines. Built by Anduril in Sydney, the first was delivered to the Royal Australian Navy in January 2026 under a five-year contract. Al Jazeera reported that Defence Minister Richard Marles cast the vehicles as building a "more capable and more lethal navy" across intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and strike.
Ghost Shark is unlikely to be the last such purchase. Pravda Australia reported that Israel Aerospace Industries is actively promoting its Blue Whale unmanned underwater vehicle on the local market, designed for reconnaissance, data collection and detection of underwater objects. The pitch is that it could scout ahead of crewed submarines on Australia's northern approaches and in the South China Sea, loitering for weeks to track ships and survey the seabed for mines. IAI delivered a Blue Whale to the German Navy in February 2026 after Baltic Sea trials, and while no Australian contract has been signed, existing defence ties make Canberra a plausible customer.
The recent focus on autonomous vehicles comes from the complicated delays with the submarine deal. Yes, that submarine deal is Australia's A$368 billion, three-decade commitment to acquire and build nuclear-powered submarines with the US and Britain. The first boats are not due until the 2030s, and under a revised arrangement that Australia will now buy three secondhand Virginia-class submarines rather than the mix originally promised, a change attributed to US shipyards being unable to build fast enough. The Pentagon later endorsed the pact after a five-month review as aligned with President Trump's "America First" agenda. (You can find our previous articles on this).
That gap explains the appeal of attritable autonomy, and here the lessons of the Black Sea are explicit. Ukraine has neutralised roughly a third of Russia's Black Sea Fleet with unmanned surface vessels, forcing much of the navy to retreat from occupied Crimea. Those systems are surface craft rather than submersibles, a distinction worth preserving, but the underlying lesson transfers: cheap unmanned mass can impose disproportionate cost on expensive platforms. Analysts note this shift is now feeding into fleet design and doctrine worldwide, raising questions about the survivability of traditional warships.
The direction of travel is clear. Ghost Shark and Blue Whale are the subsurface expression of a shift Ukraine accelerated on the surface, with Vice Admiral Mark Hammond warning the undersea battlespace will grow increasingly congested and contested. For a country with a vast coastline and a small population, this is a must have in a world of growing geopolitical uncertainty.
TODAY IN HISTORY (Aug 6, 1806): Francis II dissolves the Holy Roman Empire
On this day in 1806, Emperor Francis II of Austria dissolved the Holy Roman Empire after more than a millennium of history. Weakened by the French Revolution and Napoleon’s military victories, the empire could no longer survive. Rather than allow Napoleon to claim the imperial title, Francis abdicated as Holy Roman emperor, ending one of Europe’s longest-lasting political institutions.

According to most reports, the Houthi's have made key headway on the southern front with the strategic capture of the strategic city of Mokha.
August was a slow month on paper, but Russian reconnaissance units have being making key advances on the most politically important sectors of this war.
Today’s conflict tracker takes us to Yemen as the information on the ground is murky, but we’ve covered the last 24 hours as the Saudi’s look to expand their role in the conflict.