Are Ukraine's Logistics Strikes Having An Effect On The Frontline?

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ISSUE #384Friday, 10 July 20265 min read5 stories · 1 deep dive

The Briefing

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Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. The geopolitical temperature shows little sign of cooling, with Iran widening its attacks on US military sites, Israel warning it's ready to strike again, and Ukraine taking the fight deeper into Russian energy infrastructure.

Elsewhere, ASEAN is cautiously reopening diplomatic channels with Myanmar, while China makes waves both on Earth and in space by testing a reusable rocket recovery system and temporarily halting helium exports as the conflict in the Gulf squeezes global supply chains.

And in today’s deep dive, we take a look at a first hand source regarding whether the Ukrainian attacks on Russian logistics are having an effect?

— The Basedment Editorial Team· 10 Jul 2026

The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics

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Iran targets US military sites in Gulf as Israel warns it could ‘strike again’

Iran launched missile and drone attacks against U.S. military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan following a new wave of American strikes on Iranian military infrastructure, marking another major escalation in the conflict. Israel's Defence Minister, Israel Katz, warned that the Israeli military was prepared to resume large-scale operations against Iran "with even greater force" if Tehran continued its attacks or advanced its military capabilities.

ASEAN to re-engage Myanmar after five years of isolation

ASEAN foreign ministers will hold a special meeting in Bangkok with Myanmar's top diplomat, marking the bloc's first in-person engagement with the country's leadership in five years after its diplomatic isolation following the 2021 military coup. The talks will focus on Myanmar's ongoing civil conflict, humanitarian assistance and prospects for national dialogue, as ASEAN weighs whether the country's new army-backed government has made sufficient progress to justify closer engagement. The meeting signals a potential shift in ASEAN's approach to the Myanmar crisis, although member states remain divided over how quickly the bloc should restore full diplomatic ties.

Ukraine strikes oil refinery in Southern Russia

Russia's Ilsky oil refinery in the Krasnodar region caught fire after what local authorities said was a large-scale Ukrainian drone attack targeting energy infrastructure overnight. The strike formed part of a broader barrage involving hundreds of drones across multiple Russian regions, with officials also reporting attacks on fuel depots, port facilities and other strategic industrial sites. Ukraine has increasingly targeted Russia's oil and refining sector in an effort to disrupt fuel supplies, logistics and revenues that support Moscow's war effort.

China successfully tests sea-based rocket booster recovery system

China has successfully tested a sea-based rocket booster recovery system for the first time, recovering the first stage of a Long March 10B rocket using a net mounted on an offshore platform. The milestone marks China's first successful retrieval of an orbital-class rocket booster and is expected to support the development of reusable launch vehicles aimed at lowering launch costs and expanding the country's commercial and lunar space programmes. The achievement narrows the technological gap with reusable rocket systems pioneered by U.S. companies, as Beijing continues to invest heavily in its long-term space ambitions.

China issues temporary helium export ban as Iran war strains global supplies

China has imposed a temporary ban on helium exports with immediate effect, citing the need to safeguard domestic supplies as renewed fighting involving Iran has disrupted global helium production and supply chains. Helium is a critical input for semiconductor manufacturing, medical equipment and aerospace applications, and the conflict has already strained supplies following disruptions to production in Qatar and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The move is the latest in a series of Chinese export restrictions on strategically important materials.

Daily Deep Dive

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Analysis · russia-ukraine war

Are Ukraine's Logistics Strikes Having An Effect On The Frontline?

And in today’s deep dive, we take a look at a first hand source regarding whether the Ukrainian attacks on Russian logistics are having an effect?

Basedment Analysis

Ukraine Russia War

A report by Ukrainian Pravda examines whether Ukraine's expanding campaign of mid-range drone strikes against Russian logistics and infrastructure has translated into meaningful battlefield gains. Based on interviews with Ukrainian soldiers and commanders across multiple sectors(including Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Pokrovsk and Oleksiivka) the overwhelming response was that frontline troops have seen little immediate impact.

Several soldiers stated they feel "absolutely no effect" from the strikes, explaining that their daily reality remains dominated by Russian FPV drones, Molniya loitering munitions and sustained assault operations. Ukrainian commanders suggested that any operational benefits from the drone campaign may not become apparent until late summer or early autumn as cumulative damage to Russian logistics takes effect.

The report notes that Russia continues to retain the operational initiative across most of the front. Ukrainian forces remain primarily on the defensive, conducting local counterattacks while attempting to contain Russian advances. Although Ukraine has launched offensive operations around Oleksiivka and Lyman, the second phase of the Oleksiivka offensive reportedly stalled after an advance of roughly 10 kilometres due to intense Russian resistance, forcing Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi to adjust operational plans.

According to Ukrainian Pravda, the most active sectors are currently Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Pokrovsk and Huliaipole. The situation around Kostiantynivka is compared to the deteriorating conditions around Pokrovsk in 2025, with Russian forces heavily targeting Ukrainian drone operators and employing persistent infiltration tactics. The report also highlights that official claims regarding territorial gains may exclude contested "grey zones," where control frequently changes and is difficult to verify, suggesting battlefield realities remain highly fluid despite Ukraine's growing deep-strike campaign. Read The Report

My Thoughts

The article offers valuable frontline perspectives, but these should be interpreted within a broader operational context. Individual soldiers naturally judge success by what they experience directly, and a drone operator or infantryman fighting under constant Russian pressure is unlikely to immediately perceive disruptions occurring hundreds of kilometres behind Russian lines. Strategic effects on logistics often emerge gradually rather than producing instant battlefield changes.

It is also important to consider the concentration of Russian offensive effort around Kostiantynivka and other priority sectors. Even if Ukrainian strikes are degrading logistics elsewhere, Russia may still be allocating sufficient resources to sustain offensives in its main axes, masking any wider operational impact.

Finally, frontline interviews can carry institutional or emotional biases. Soldiers under severe pressure may emphasise deteriorating conditions to highlight the challenges facing their units or to reinforce calls for additional manpower, equipment or support. Their testimony is highly valuable for understanding tactical realities but should be balanced against wider operational indicators, including Russian ammunition expenditure, logistics patterns, vehicle availability and the long-term cumulative effects of Ukraine's deep-strike campaign. Sources Available upon request