ISSUE #352📅Friday, 29 May 2026⏱5 min read📑5 stories · 1 deep dive
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The Briefing
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Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. From Europe’s eastern edge to the Middle East, today’s headlines are once again dominated by rising geopolitical friction, with a Russian drone crossing into Romanian airspace and adding fresh pressure on NATO’s already tense eastern flank. In the Middle East, ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran appear to be inching forward, even as Israel expands its control over large parts of Gaza.
Elsewhere, political and security fault lines are widening from Canberra to Colombia, with Australia’s Liberals bringing back Tony Abbott in a leadership shake-up while deadly clashes between armed groups in Colombia underline worsening instability in key conflict regions.
In today's conflict tracker we zoom in on Kostyantynivka, as it continues to deteriorate with Ukraine evacuating its final drone operators from the town - never a good sign.
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 29 May 2026
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The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
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Russian drone crashes into apartment building in Romania
A Russian drone crashed into a residential apartment building in Romania near the border with Ukraine, causing damage and prompting an emergency response from Romanian authorities. Officials said the incident occurred during another large-scale Russian drone attack targeting southern Ukraine along the Danube River region, with debris and shockwaves from previous strikes already raising security concerns inside NATO member states bordering the conflict. Romania’s defence ministry condemned the incident and said investigations were underway.
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Iran, US reach deal to extend ceasefire, pending Trump’s approval
The United States and Iran have reportedly reached a preliminary agreement to extend their current ceasefire for another 60 days, although the deal still requires final approval from Donald Trump and senior Iranian leadership. According to multiple reports, the proposed framework would include steps toward reopening unrestricted commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz while broader negotiations continue over Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief and regional security issues.
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Israel’s Netanyahu directs army to seize 70 percent of Gaza strip
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he has directed the Israeli military to expand its control over the Gaza Strip to roughly 70% of the territory, marking a major escalation in Israel’s ongoing campaign against Hamas. Netanyahu said Israeli forces already control around 60% of Gaza and described the expanded zones as part of broader “security buffer” measures aimed at preventing future attacks following the October 7 assault on Israel. The announcement has drawn sharp criticism from Palestinian officials and humanitarian groups.
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Australia’s embattled Liberals tap former PM Abbott as party president
Australia’s opposition Liberal Party has appointed former Prime Minister Tony Abbott as federal party president, in a move widely viewed as reinforcing the party’s shift toward a more conservative direction following consecutive election defeats. Abbott, who served as prime minister from 2013 to 2015, will oversee party governance and organisational strategy as Opposition Leader Angus Taylor attempts to rebuild support ahead of the next federal election. The appointment has sparked debate within Liberal ranks, with supporters arguing Abbott can reconnect the party with its traditional base, while critics warn the move could further alienate moderate and younger voters.
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Clashes between armed groups in Colombia kill at least 52
At least 52 people were killed in clashes between rival armed groups in southeastern Colombia as dissident factions linked to the former FARC guerrilla movement battled for control of key cocaine trafficking territory. The fighting took place in the remote Guaviare region, where armed groups have increasingly competed over drug routes, illegal mining operations and rural influence following the collapse of several ceasefire agreements. Colombian authorities said additional troops had been deployed to the area to protect civilians, while the violence has further intensified concerns over deteriorating security conditions ahead of the country’s presidential election.
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Daily Deep Dive
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Analysis · russia-ukraine war
Ukraine Evacuates Drone Teams From Kostyantynivka
The situation around Kostyantynivka continues to deteriorate as Ukraine evacuates its final drone operators from the town - never a good sign.
Basedment Analysis
Conflict Tracker
Russia-Ukraine We are once again zooming in on Kostiantynivka. I can’t overstate the importance of this city for the remainder of 2026. Not only is it the “underbelly” or soft spot in the Ukrainian Donetsk fortress belt – its fall will give Russian units the morale boost that is so needed after a historically slow start to the campaigning season. The broader OSINT picture on Kostiantynivka right now is concerning for the Ukrainian side, and the claims from AMK_Mapping and Suriyak align with a pattern that has been building for several weeks.
Infiltration In, Drone Operators Out
ISW confirmed as far back as May 7 and 8 that Russian forces conducted infiltration missions in southern Kostiantynivka, with geolocated footage showing Ukrainian forces striking Russian servicemembers along the T-0504 Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway after what ISW assessed was a Russian infiltration probe. The pattern has only intensified since then. By May 19 and 20, ISW documented further Russian infiltration missions in the southwestern outskirts, while simultaneously noting that Ukrainian forces appear to have advanced slightly in central Illinivka to the south, with ISW observing data indicating a sustained Ukrainian presence in Illinivka and the southwestern outskirts since at least April 30.
The southwestern approaches around Illinivka, Stepanivka, and Berestok are where the immediate danger is sharpest, with the Conflict Intelligence Team reporting a sustained Russian buildup around those villages and unconfirmed reports of infiltrators reaching the ponds north of Illinivka. Russian units have already demonstrated they can penetrate to significant depth inside the city, having reached the zinc plant in central Kostiantynivka following a previous infiltration operation.
it also signals we might be nearing the end of this battle, but you truly never know. The drone picture is the crux of what AMK_Mapping and Suriyak are flagging. As of mid-May, a drone operator with Ukraine's 28th Brigade stated his team was still operating in the same area where they had been positioned in September 2025, but the pressure on Ukrainian UAV crews inside the city has clearly become unsustainable. The withdrawal or elimination of Ukrainian drone operators from within Kostiantynivka itself would represent a meaningful degradation in close-in situational awareness, stripping Ukraine of the real-time eyes that have been disrupting Russian infiltration teams before they can consolidate.
Russian Troops Moving Out – Not The Sign You Think It Is
ISW noted on May 20 that Russian command had been moving several tank and motorized rifle regiments away from the Kostiantynivka axis to cover losses elsewhere, which could temporarily ease pressure but does not change the fundamental dynamic of Russian small-unit infiltration grinding forward through the southern districts. The loss of Ukrainian drone coverage inside the city, if confirmed, removes one of the few tools that had been slowing that process down, and June looks to be a very difficult month. I would not view this as a Russian retreat, but rather further proof that Russia is consolidating its presence in the city given they believe they don’t need to bring in more heavy armour or reinforcements.
TODAY IN HISTORY (May 29, 1658): The Battle of Samugarh was fought in a contest for the throne between the sons of the Mughal emperor Shah Jahān following the emperor's serious illness in September 1657.
