Trump says an agreement with Iran has been “largely negotiated” - Has It?

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Iran-USA-Israel

The "largely negotiated" claim and what it means

Trump posted on Truth Social on Saturday that an agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz has been "largely negotiated," with "final aspects and details" still being discussed and a formal announcement coming "shortly." He also said he had spoken with leaders across the region, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain, as well as a call with Netanyahu that he described as going well.

Rubio, speaking from New Delhi, was cautiously positive but not definitive. He said it was possible the world would get some "good news" in the coming hours, while adding there was "still work to do." He cited "significant progress" and reiterated the US position that Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon, also flagging that any Iranian move to impose tolls on Strait traffic would set a dangerous precedent.

What the MOU reportedly contains

The deal is expected to unfold in two phases. In the first, Iran reopens the Strait to pre-war shipping levels and provides assurances it won't pursue nuclear weapons, with Iran also allowed to resume oil and fuel sales. The second phase, lasting 30 to 60 days, would address longer-term issues. The New York Times separately reported that Iran has agreed in a general statement to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, with the exact mechanics to be worked out during follow-on negotiations.

Where Iran's messaging diverges

This is the key tension right now. Iran's semi-official Fars news agency, which is affiliated with the IRGC, rejected Trump's framing on the Strait, saying his claim about it returning to pre-war status is "not true" and "inconsistent with reality." Fars specified that while Iran has agreed to allow vessel numbers to return to pre-war levels, this does not mean free passage as it existed before the conflict. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman offered a more measured but still open-ended read, saying both sides are in the "final stage" of an MOU and that positions are getting closer.

My Comments Overall And The Israeli Elephant In the Room

What's still unresolved is the framing of Strait control and the nuclear file sequencing. Iran has not yet accepted any specific actions on its nuclear programme, with the potential agreement reportedly allocating 30 days for Strait-related procedures and 60 days for nuclear talks. Globally we’re seeing world leaders more optimistic than in previous peace “leaks”, Pakistan's foreign minister has called the progress grounds for optimism. A formal announcement has not yet come, and Iran's window to formally respond appears to be the next 48 to 72 hours.

Don’t forget that Trump allegedly missed his own son's wedding to ensure he was present at these negotiations. Before the news of the MOU came out and Trump saying he was going to skip the wedding - many believed there were two possibilities – either war is resuming or war is ending, and it seems to be the latter. Yet, we all know how this game of diplomatic hot potato has been going.

According to the NYT, Trump is increasingly sidelining the Israeli President largely due to the events that unfolded publicly and privately since the Iran conflict broke out. Netanyahu was reportedly furious over the deal being closed and while that may ultimately prove to be “fake news”, Israel remains the elephant in the room. Any agreement between the U.S. and Iran would not solve the core issue: Israel and Iran are not just regional rivals, but long-term ideological and geopolitical enemies whose conflict extends far beyond any single nuclear or diplomatic deal. Especially one where Israel doesn’t have a seat at the table (unless you include Kushner).