Russian Troops Withdraw From Northern Mali

The most consequential development is Kidal. The city has fallen to the FLA and JNIM, marking the first time either group has taken military control of a city since 2013. This is strategically significant beyond the symbolism. Controlling urban centres gives the alliance access to fuel, food, supplies and the ability to tax movement, which feeds directly into sustaining a prolonged campaign. The Africa Corps, having negotiated a safe withdrawal corridor for its own personnel, is now pulling back toward Tessalit. Critically, that deal does not cover Malian Armed Forces soldiers left behind in the former UN camp outside Kidal. Those men are surrounded, and Bamako's government is now watching its Russian partners walk away from their own troops to save themselves. That is not a small political problem.

On the human cost at the top, the hits have been severe. Mali's Defence Minister Sadio Camara was killed in a vehicle-borne IED attack on his residence. Reports from the ground indicate his wife and at least one of his children also perished. The Malian Chief of the General Staff was also killed. Junta leader Goïta is reportedly sheltering in a camp under Special Forces protection, which tells you everything about the psychological atmosphere in Bamako right now.

Russian forces have not been untouched either. A Russian helicopter was shot down over Mali, crew killed, almost certainly by FLA fighters.

What stabilised the situation, at least partially, was drone power. Turkish and Russian drone strikes helped FAMA and Africa Corps forces hold onto the key airbases in Gao, Sévaré, Kati and Bamako. Those airbases matter enormously for any counteroffensive capacity and resupply. The honest read here is that the junta has survived day one, but with its most senior military and civilian leadership gutted, its Russian partners in partial retreat, and an enemy that has now demonstrated it can coordinate simultaneous attacks across the entire country. The worst of this is likely still ahead.