ISSUE #351📅Thursday, 28 May 2026⏱6 min read📑5 stories · 1 deep dive
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The Briefing
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Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today. From the Strait of Hormuz to southern Lebanon, today’s headlines are firmly anchored in escalating Middle East tensions, with US-Iran brinkmanship spilling into direct strikes, retaliatory threats, and wider regional instability.
In Kuwait, reported missile and drone activity has further strained an already fragile ceasefire dynamic, while in Kenya, a tragic school dormitory fire has brought a very different but equally sobering crisis into focus.
In today's conflict tracker we zoom in on on the renewed RSF offensive in southern Sudan, as Israel continues to unleash airstrikes on Lebanese cities.
— The Basedment Editorial Team· 28 May 2026
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The Last 24 Hours in Geopolitics
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Trump threatens to ‘blow up’ Oman amid talks over Strait of Hormuz
Trump threatened that the United States would “blow up” Oman if the Gulf state attempted to work with Iran on controlling or imposing tolls through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important oil shipping routes. The comments came amid stalled negotiations over reopening the strait to unrestricted commercial traffic following months of disruption linked to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, with Trump insisting that the waterway must remain under “international” access. Oman, a long-time U.S. security partner that has also played a key mediating role in talks with Tehran, has not publicly responded to the remarks.
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Iran’s IRGC say they targeted US airbase after strike near Bandar Abbas
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it targeted a U.S. airbase in retaliation for what it described as an earlier American strike near Bandar Abbas airport in southern Iran. The IRGC said the attack was launched at approximately 4:50am local time and warned that any further “aggression” by the United States would be met with a “more decisive” response, although Iranian officials did not specify which U.S. base had been targeted.
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Israel strikes Tyre after declaring ‘combat zones’ in South Lebanon
Israel carried out airstrikes on the southern Lebanese city of Tyre after declaring several areas in southern Lebanon “combat zones” amid an expanding military campaign against Hezbollah. The Israeli military said residents in parts of Tyre and surrounding towns were ordered to evacuate before strikes targeted what it described as Hezbollah command sites, weapons depots and rocket-launch infrastructure following continued cross-border attacks into northern Israel. Lebanese officials reported multiple casualties and significant damage to residential areas.
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Kuwait faces attack as Iran ceasefire remains shaky
Kuwait said it faced a missile and drone attack overnight as the fragile ceasefire surrounding the ongoing US-Iran conflict came under renewed strain. Kuwaiti authorities said air defence systems intercepted several incoming threats, although officials did not immediately specify the intended targets, while Iranian media later acknowledged military activity in the region without providing full details.
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Dormitory fire at Kenyan school kills at least 15 students
At least 15 students were killed after a fire tore through a dormitory at a secondary school in western Kenya overnight, with emergency crews continuing to search the damaged building for additional victims and survivors. Kenyan authorities said dozens of students suffered burn injuries and smoke inhalation after the blaze broke out while pupils were asleep, prompting a major rescue and medical response. Officials have launched an investigation into the cause of the fire.
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Daily Deep Dive
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Analysis · middle east
Israel Continues Airstrikes On Ancient City Of Tyre, RSF Push North In Sudan
In today's conflict tracker we zoom in on on the renewed RSF offensive in southern Sudan, as Israel continues to unleash airstrikes on Lebanese cities.
Basedment Analysis
Conflict Tracker
Israel-Hezbollah The IDF carried out fresh strikes on Tyre early Thursday, hitting what it described as Hezbollah command centers in and around the coastal city. Lebanon's state-run National News Agency confirmed two separate sets of strikes hit Tyre and an area to its east on Thursday morning, with one hitting a building and sparking a significant fire in the city. This follows the evacuation warning Israel issued for the area on Wednesday, which came roughly two hours before the first wave of strikes began.
The IDF designated all areas south of Lebanon's Zahrani River as active combat zones, urging residents to move north, with a map circulated showing most of Tyre highlighted red for displacement, including areas abutting the city center. Separately, two people were killed in the nearby town of Deir Amas in the Tyre district, and strikes also destroyed two homes in Braiqaa to the south.
Tyre sits beyond the security zone the IDF took direct control of in March, which is precisely why Hezbollah has been using it as a launchpad, with the absence of Israeli ground presence giving them room to operate. The strikes this morning appear to be Israel's answer to that, hitting infrastructure from the air while the ground situation stays complicated.
On a bonus note, given the significant impact and reach of Hezbollah FPV drones, I would not be surprised if we continue to see further incursions north of the Latini river to assist in pushing that buffer zone as far away from the Israeli border as possible. Remember, a large justification for the original offensive was to create a buffer against Hezbollah rocket strikes on northern Israel, now it’s all about limiting drone reach. We also can’t ignore the attacks on the Iron Dome launchers, which as of this publication is sitting at four strikes.
Sudanese Civil War
The situation on the Blue Nile front has continued to evolve following the capture of Kurmuk by the joint Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) coalition. After consolidating control over Kurmuk, the allied forces reportedly advanced westward and captured the town of Kayli, indicating what may be the opening phase of a broader push toward Damazin, the capital of Blue Nile State.
The offensive highlights the growing importance of the Blue Nile theatre within the wider Sudanese Civil War. Unlike the intense urban fighting seen in Khartoum and Darfur, operations in Blue Nile are heavily shaped by border security, supply corridors, and mountainous terrain along the Ethiopian frontier. Control of towns such as Kurmuk provides strategic depth, cross-border access, and potential logistical routes for sustaining future operations deeper into the state.
At the same time, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) announced that they had secured full control of the Al-Baraka area near the Blue Nile border region. According to the SAF’s 4th Infantry Division, the operation inflicted heavy casualties on the RSF/SPLM-N alliance and resulted in the destruction and capture of military equipment. The SAF described the operation as part of a broader strategy to stabilize the eastern border areas and disrupt smuggling and human trafficking routes that have long operated across the frontier regions.
The competing claims underline the fluid nature of the Blue Nile front. While the RSF-aligned coalition appears to be maintaining offensive momentum toward Damazin, the SAF is simultaneously attempting to secure defensive lines and prevent further territorial losses in one of Sudan’s most strategically sensitive border regions.
This relatively small frontline has major implications for regional stability. The allied SPLM-N and RSF forces were likely trained or supported across the border in Ethiopia, which is aligned with UAE regional interests. And something I have discussed before is that the cross-border nature of the offensive has intensified diplomatic tensions as the growing rivalry between Gulf states continues to transform localised conflicts into wider regional proxy wars.
TODAY IN HISTORY (May 28, 2016): A gorilla named Harambe was shot and killed at the Cincinnati Zoo after a three-year-old boy fell into his enclosure. The incident prompted debates in the United States over how the situation should have been handled as well as the role of zoos.
